Polling Predictions #18

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

The start of another week and the sh!tshow continues. The little brown chap is said to be despondent about the reaction to him skipping the D-Day commemoration. Not only does he have a tin ear he must have a tin brain to go with it. Just after midday on Saturday he cancelled all media interviews today, he must be putting a lid on it. I do hope he is considering seppuku.

CCHQ now believe they could win less than 100 seats, still far too many, and that Reform could overtake them in the polls in the next 2 days. This could end up as a Canada style wipeout. The good ship “Tory Grifters” is sinking and the hindu dwarf is not the man to plug the leaks. It just has to be too late to even attempt to replace him. It serves the buggers right.

George Galloway’s Workers Party promised to field over 500 candidates in this election. They have managed to nominate 153 candidates, many of whom have name that looks like they originate in the sub-continent, I reckon 90% have such names.

In Wayells Redfield Wilton says Reform are neck and neck with the Tories at 18%. That figure is unlikely to result in any seats but there are a few weeks to go, Reform has time to increase their vote share.

The Resolution Foundation think tank (me neither) claims that taxes will go up by £800 regardless of who wins the election. I think £800 is being on the cautious side.

The Tories have suspended social media campaigning, they have run out of money. They are also fighting like rats in a sack over who was responsible for the dwarf’s D-Day fiasco, the term circular firing squad has been mooted. Ministerial aides have been summoned to report in to help with the campaign; many have refused, it is turning very nasty in the Tory ranks. Couldn’t happen to a nicer party. Some of the higher ups fighting to take over from NikNak are unlikely to get re-elected. It’s all a bit doomsday. One of the big things to remember is that this is NikNak’s first and only campaign as leader and he has cocked it up spectacularly.

The very greasy Nadhim Zahawi has called for inheritance tax to be abolished. As if. That would leave a very large hole in the finances, 6th use for the Tax Avoidance clampdown ?

You just can’t keep the Corbyns out of the news. This time it is Piers Corbyn, the much more sensible brother of the tramp. He is standing its an independent in Bermondsey and Old Southwark. The last MP was Neil Coyle, a man with a drink problem who spent 15 months suspended from Labour after allegations of bullying and being abusive. He was the chair of the All Party Parliamentary Group for Wines and Spirits. This stuff really does write itself.

It will come as no surprise to puffins that the most popular name among Galloway’s 153 candidates is Mohammed with a count of 8, surprising it wasn’t more TBH.

In what has to be the political equivalent of two bald men fighting over a comb, Tory women are not at all happy about the candidate selection process. They claim they were treated like no-hopers while displaced male MPs and the lads from Number 10 got an easy ride. I use the two bald men analogy because most of the Tories are headed to oblivion.

There are still rumours that the Prime Miniature is going to fall on his sword and CallMeDave will be swept in to save the Party. If that is the plan they must be smoking some really powerful crack in the recesses of CCHQ. They have now produced a video explaining why their claim that Labour will have a £2,094 tax increase is correct. All Labour have to do is produce the equivalent asking how the Tax Avoidance clampdown proceeds can be used 6 times over (whereas theirs has only been allocated 3 times).

NikNak’s latest wheeze is to recruit 8,000 more plod so he can pretend to have a crackdown on law and order. Seeing as plod are highly politicised, how on earth is that going to work. This will be paid for by raising visa fees by 25% and a health surcharge on overseas students. I’m just as confused as you are but at least it’s not the Tax Avoidance money again.

Following on from the mythical far right having a bonanza in the Euro elections, expect attacks on Reform to step up a gear or two. I also notice a few hit jobs on Galloway as well. Our journalists certainly follow orders.

Those of you who intend to watch election night with ITV will be overjoyed to learn that Nobsore and the Fishwife will be there commenting on the proceedings. FFS, who on earth thought that one up, perhaps Gideon’s Miss Whiplash friend. What delights can we expect from the other broadcasters. Hamas on Al-Jabeeba may be worth a punt.

Reform have announced the Great British Tax Cut. While having a pop at the BoE, I’m not sure they know what and where they are going to cut. It’s all a bit Liz Truss territory.

Douglas Ross, leader of the Scottish Tories, has said he will resign as leader after the GE. This of course is entirely unrelated to an alleged cover up over his dodgy expense claims.

It looks like manifesto week will be a competition about who can offer the largest bribes to various voters . None of them can afford any of the bribes so the best course of action is to ignore all of them. Nigel has now said Reform are not going to have a manifesto, it will be a contract. The schedule is

  • 10th LibDums
  • 11th Tories
  • 12th Greenies
  • 13th Labour
  • 17th Reform

They have all been wrong footed by the dwarf’s early election call, even the Tories. There is much fighting behind the scenes about what is in the manifestos and the far far right Tories (oxymoron ?) have threatened to release their own manifesto if the official one falls flat. How on earth would they implement an unofficial manifesto when their party will not even implement its official one. The delusion runs deep. I feel they are all missing the point. The Tories are thoroughly detested so it is only a question of which other brand are you going to vote for. Their bribes will not change anyone’s mind. The LibDems on the other hand still cling to any NHS mantra and, surprise surprise, still bang on about Proportional Representation. They are also going to clampdown on Tax Avoidance – £7 billion they predict, far less is my gut feeling.

The common thread in these manifestos will be they want to cut taxes and increase spending. Does not compute as the saying goes even though they all claim their promises have been fully costed and fully funded.

NikNak is now promising tax cuts and a clampdown on immigration. He can’t afford tax cuts and he has done very little about immigration when he had the chance, the only change has been an increase in invaders. Tax cuts were supposedly what did for Liz Truss but then she wasn’t the WEF’s choice. I saw very little about the LibDum manifesto promises, what I did see was less than impressive.

Some lefty loon hurled builders rubble at Nigel Farage as he was campaigning in Barnsley. Not one single condemnation from the other parties. Imagine if someone threw a brick at the hindu dwarf, all hell would break loose. Simultaneously a YouGov poll puts Reform on 17%, only 1 point behind the Tories on 18%. Could we see the crossover tomorrow ? There is even speculation that the Tories could finish 4th or even 5th. It’s a lovely thought however unlikely.

On the eve of the Greenie manifesto unveiling, Robin Harper, Scotland’s first ever Green Parliamentarian has joined Labour. Is this an omen ? The great unveiling consisted of ….. I’m not quite sure. More spending and more taxes by the sound of it. They should rebadge as the Communist Party or even the Watermelon Party. I can just see them Green devils guarding the camps armed with cattle prods. Oddly they don’t mention Gulags but I fear that is hovering just below the surface. Go Green or else.

Today has been the pothole bidding war. Parties have been promising to fix x million potholes. Isn’t that a County Council issue in general.

Grant “manynames” Shapps rather giving the game away when pleading to voters not to give Labour a supermajority. They have given up already. Sounds like NikNak has piled in as well. They really don’t have a clue do they. Bill Clinton’s infamous “It’’s the economy stupid” will bite the dwarf on the bum, the economy had an increase of 0% (© the Caledonian Cyclops) in April.

Someone described as a YouTuber named Niko Omilana has put his name forward in 11 constituencies. He looks rather tinged and obviously doesn’t know you can only stand in one. He will probably get his collar felt.

In North Britain Ipsos says 51% of Scots would now vote for independence. This ties in well with the disastrous polling figures for the SNP. In GB in general Labour have stopped campaigning in Tory seats with a majority of less than 3,000 assuming they will come to them anyway. Come on Nigel do your thing.

Striking news from Hartlepool in the Red Wall. Jill Mortimer, a Tory, got 52% of the vote last time. She is now predicted to get 10% at the GE. Labour are on 58% and Reform are languishing at an otherwise respectable 23%. No wonder the Tories are talking about supermajorities.

It seems there was another leaders’ debate that has passed me by. I am reliably informed that Keith reminded everyone again that his father was a toolmaker. FFS what is wrong with the man. After the debate Max Headroom was featuring heavily on twatter. Needless to say the contrast was with Keith and Max was looking more the human. Regarding the laughter when Keith mentioned toolmaker for the umpteenth time, he is now claiming victim status accusing the audience of sneering at the working class. Looks like he picked the stick up by the brown end again.

Three days before the little brown chap announced the election Craig Williams, the dwarf’s closest parliamentary aide and now a Tory candidate, placed a £100 bet on a July election at 5 to 1. The Gambling Commission is now looking into it. Another example of greedy Tories being Tories.

Today we have Labour presenting their manifesto. No idea what’s in it because I took no notice of it. I bet I am as aware of what’s in it as anybody else. Just seen in the Sun (I know) that he is going to raise taxes by £8.5 billion. That might pay for a small part of what he has promised. The ever revolting Dawn Butler has made a rap video, almost certain it is nowt but crap. The left are now having a bull and cow with Labour because the phrase “the NHS is not for sale” has not been included in the manifesto. Don’t Labour have previous when it comes to hiving bits of the NHS out to the private sector ?

The latest Nowcast seat prediction reckons that the tramp will be victorious in Islington North and an Independent will win in North Down. The Independent candidates in North Down are Chris Carter and Alex Easton. Mr Easton is a member of the Norn Iron Assembly, maybe he has had a big fall out with the various shades of Unionist in the Province, or is it a Plantation.

Somewhat sensational news from YouGov ahead of the 7 way mud slinging contest. Reform have edged ahead of the Tories by 1%, well within the margin of error but Reform are heading up while NikNak’s shower are standing still at best. Keith’s shower also heading down slowly. Keith may be well advised to keep his head down like Militwat used to. Some unkind people are contrasting Keith’s tenure with that of the tramp and implying the tramp had better poll numbers.

Alongside National polls comes news from Boston and Skegness where the wet rag Richard Tice is standing. It is reported that Reform may take the second safest Tory seat in the country. In 2019 Matt Warman got 77% of the vote. Voters now are more likely to stay at home or vote for Isobel’s squeeze. It does look like “Tory safe seat” is now an oxymoron. Mr Warman foolishly wanted to remain in one of the most leave parts of the country.

Not content with stuffing Scotland, the SNP is now demanding that the English pay tax at the same as rate as that charged in Scotland. Brass neck springs to mind but I’m sure the Scots have a word or words that better describe that.

On the back of that YouGov poll Farage is now demanding all sorts. A debate with Keith on Al-Jabeeba about immigration, a debate with the dwarf about who knows what and is insisting he is now the official opposition. A vote for the Tories is a wasted vote. Not sure he’s gonna get that many seats but why not go for it.

Isaac Levido is the man in charge of the Tory campaign. An unnamed Tory candidate has said that Isaac’s beard has turned white it’s going so badly. This may in fact refer to facial hair because there is a long tradition of beards in politics. See Billy bumboy Hague, the Caledonian Cyclops and even Obummer for further details and no, I didn’t forget Micron.

Finally we get to the polls. Firstly the national polls. Quite a few new names in the list of pollsters. Labour seem to be down a few points and the same for the Tories, Reform are on the way up and they seem to be bigging up Ed Davey’s slapstick routines. Still no sign of Galloway’s Workers Party. Maybe they need to visit a few mosques.

The Nowcast seat predictions look a bit off to me, Tories still on 101, Labour going down a little bit, the poxy LibDems on the rise and Reform still stuck on 1 seat. If they keep it like that I predict egg on their faces. The only joy of a 2nd seat for the Greenies is that the revolting Thangam Debbonnaire will be out of a job.

The third image is the polls in Scotland. The SNP seem to have caught up with Labour. Not idea why, that Swinney is utterly useless. How low can the Tories sink north of the border. The LibDems are also on the slide.

That’s it for another exhilarating week of polling and political shenanigans in general. Had it not been for Farage joining the fray I would have had very little to scribble about. We still have nearly three weeks to go. I need a drink.

© well_chuffed 2024