Monday Good morning, my happy readers. Brighter this morning and quite a decent day out there. It looks like it’s going to be a decent week here in Downing Street, as Mascara Man is off [more…]
The previous piece on opinion polls looked at who commissions opinion polls and what might be their motivations. This second piece is about how opinion polls are conducted and how reliable they are. Let us [more…]
In 1992, every opinion poll and market research organization predicted a Labour victory at the general election. The BBC exit poll as the polls closed at 10pm on 9 April 1992 suggested that the Conservatives [more…]
After the predictable but sickening claims by Labour that they have a mandate following the 2024 election it is time to check out what happened previously. The sight of Crayons with a permanent smug look [more…]
Here we are then the results are in and all that remains is for me to summarise how close the polls were to reality. The pollsters need to have been reasonably close to the final [more…]
As you read this we stand on the edge of history, Opinion Polls are not allowed to be published on election day so we can expect a flurry of them by the Wednesday. History may [more…]
Throughout the ballot box’s history, unexpected election results have stunned the public, defied polls, and shifted political landscapes. These surprising outcomes often reflect underlying societal changes, voter sentiment, and the unpredictability of electoral politics. As [more…]
As we trundle into the final full week of the campaign the furore over Nigel’s Ukraine comments shows no sign of dying down. The establishment thinks it has found a surefire way of beating down [more…]
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