Polling Predictions Summary

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

Here we are then the results are in and all that remains is for me to summarise how close the polls were to reality. The pollsters need to have been reasonably close to the final results, after all they need more business in the future.

My part in this was to get egg all over my face. The later polls showed Reform’s percentages increasing and the Tories stubbornly holding on. I used my heart to wish this wasn’t the truth and that the Tories would get fewer votes and Reform would get more. I can’t believe my fellow countrymen still voting for Tories. Come to that they also voted Labour.

Firstly we need to look at the exit poll. Mostly the data is shown as number of seats and they were pretty accurate except in the case of Reform who didn’t get the predicted 13 seats and had to make do with 5.

In percentage terms I think YouGov was the closest, their poll published on the 27th June was one of the best of the bunch. Labour and Reform were consistently overestimated in the final sets of polls. They still have problems translating percentages into seats with the smaller parties. Nobody had Labour as low as 33 or 34 percent. Some serious questions are being asked of the pollsters who consistently had Labour in the 40% range for all or nearly all of the campaign. A woman scorned may be difficult but a politician scorned is best avoided.

Compared to 2019 the Tories lost massively, Reform came out of nowhere for a creditable 14% and Labour plus the LibDems both had a reduced number of votes. So why did the tramp get thrashed and Keith get a stonking 170 seat majority. First past the post and the geographical area where the voters live are the reasons allied to the collapse in Tory support. The numbers prove that nobody loves Labour or the LibDems, they just detest the Tories and especially NikNak.

Is the drubbing the Tories got enough to finish the Party off, we all hope so but both sides have returned from such defeats. We all thought Labour was dead when Michael Foot got thrashed in 1983 but they returned with a vengeance and wreaked their vengeance via Satan Blair.

The big winner in 2024 is the WEF and the globalists. Management changed but the direction is still the same. If only we could eradicate bought and paid for politicians but they are just the type of people most attracted to getting oodles of dosh for very little effort and even fewer qualifications.

The opinion polls in Islington North were predicting a Labour victory, they got that horribly wrong. I still fail to see why so many on the left love the tramp so much. It has all the makings of a cult. They did however get Bristol Central spot on when the ghastly Debbonaire woman was evicted.

Firstly we can have a look at the percentages, I really don’t like percentages – you can prove anything with them. I use YouGov’s final poll numbers, I think those most match what happened. Then we have the actual percentage and then the difference in percentage between 2024 and 2019. 

Now we have the number of votes cast by party and in 2024 Labour got about 600,000 fewer votes than in 2019. The tramp wasn’t so bad after all. I hasten to add that the Communist Party of Britain received 2,622 votes across the entire country. Most of the real commies stand for LibLabCon. Only Reform and the Greenie bar stewards got more votes than before, Reform being compared with the Brexit Party in 2019. I think the differences in the raw numbers show the percentage difference in the previous image in a very bad light.

Now we can show the exit poll seat predictions compared with reality. Not bad I would say apart from Reform but that is not so easy to predict. I am grateful they got the 5 they did.

To illustrate how far out some of the polls were, here is Redfield & Wilton’s offering across the campaign

Of the rest I think YouGov were one of the better ones

If I needed to ask one of these shysters to poll about something I am not sure I would bother. No doubt they are busy polishing up their excuses hamper.

For several elections now, the exit poll results have been fairly accurate, more accurate than the previous polls. As they say polls are a snapshot but in many cases I would change the O in shot to an I.

The best part about elections is the Schadenfreude of big names being beaten and parties going down the Swannee. There are so many anomalies in this election it is hard to know where to start. Will the LibDems become sudden lovers of FPTP, at least for a few years. Reform want electoral reform. I just can’t see that happening, the big two always want FPTP and usually one of them wins, I don’t think they can be shamed into agreeing to a PR system. Perhaps Keith can be duped into another referendum.

© well_chuffed 2024