So here we are possibly facing WW3. Or maybe not. I will give a brief analysis of what I see going on in Ukraine and how it relates to the wider world. I will say now that I am not for Putin, nor am I for Ukraine. I am certainly not for the globalists that currently rule over us. Putin may be anti-globalist, but that doesn’t make him a great guy or make the invasion right. His abandonment of Christian Armenia when attacked by Azerbaijan and Turkish militants shows he can be fickle to say the least. I am generally anti-war, as it is almost always bad, and civilians suffer the most. Wars also have consequences, many that you cannot foresee and cannot control. We’ve seen this time and again in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. I think this time will be no different.
Putin is walking into a trap in Ukraine, one of the globalists’ devising. To see how and why, we need to go back a few steps. The world is realigning and falling between two camps, the generally globalist and the generally nationalist. On the one hand you have the globalists, fronted by America and its Pax Americana, made up of the NATO countries, the EU, UK, Australia, and assorted hangers on. On the other, the more broadly nationalist Axis coalition of Russia, China, and Iran, with up-and-coming powers India and Brazil also increasingly moving within their orbit.
The Axis see the old order weakening, especially with Biden in the White House. They were emboldened by the shambolic, farcical, and tragic withdrawal from Afghanistan, which should have been completed years earlier and in good order. They sense their moment is arriving on the world stage. And so, first to try it on and see how far they can push it is Russia under Putin, invading Ukraine. China, with an eye on Taiwan, is a very keenly interested onlooker.
If Putin can take Ukraine relatively quickly and easily and with relatively few casualties, it will prove the old globalist powers are weakening. NATO, the EU, the USA, and Biden will be embarrassed, look weak on the world stage, the resolve no longer there to challenge the Axis. The globalists need to respond to this. As Prime Minister Boris Johnson keeps saying, Russia must fail. If the globalists lose Ukraine, they will be challenged everywhere and it’s goodbye Taiwan.
This needs to be balanced against Russia being a nuclear power, the potential for WW3 and the devastation to countries and economies it could bring. This is especially true after Western nations ruined their economies with blindly followed Covid restrictions. If NATO get involved, Russia will surely trigger the clauses in its own treaties with its own allies, including Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, etc. China may also decide to be involved, as well as Iran and Syria. This could then lead to a multi-theatre conflict.
The question then is how to respond? The answer at the moment seems to be no direct involvement, but to supply Ukraine with weapons, money, and other aid. The aim is that Russia wins but at a high cost in terms of men, machines, and money. This will then be a pyrrhic victory.
The benefits of this are that they keep all their military and economies intact, while the Russian military and economy is degraded. Russia will be bogged down with the invasion and with occupying Ukraine. This means that should NATO forces intervene later, or face China in Taiwan, they still have all their resources. Russia cannot aid China in Taiwan or Iran in the Middle East, leaving the globalists with a freer hand. They also get to see how their weapons fare against the Russians without fighting themselves. To this end they have led Ukraine up the garden path, promising things like NATO and EU membership, only for these to vanish like the morning mist once the fighting starts. Zelensky begs for a no-fly zone. Why do that when we can light up the EU Parliament in the colours of the Ukrainian flag?
Alongside this the globalists are now starting to practice what has become known as unrestricted warfare. Everything is war, not just armed conflict. The economy, culture, politics, information, identity, population, etc. All is used as a weapon. The Chinese pioneered this, and they are very good at it. Russia followed suit and now the globalists are using it. You can see this in the economic sanctions piled on Russia and the cancelling of every feature of Russia in our lives, from Tchaikovsky to Russian dancers on Strictly, to football teams and mustard on supermarket shelves. Everything is war.
This will also have an effect on Russia’s ability to wage war if it is cut off economically. Tanks and hypersonic missiles don’t come cheap. It will also turn people and nations away from Russia. They will not want to be seen to do business with Russia or associate with them. How effective it is remains to be seen. It doesn’t help that the EU, Germany in particular, is addicted to Russian gas to keep the lights on. Sanctions cut both ways. Prices are already rising across the board due to profligate money printing during Covid, shortages of oil and gas will only exacerbate this. China may also provide a backdoor to get around the sanctions. Globalists may also take this chance to implement the Great Reset plan, bringing in economic measures and climate change plans under the guise of war time regulations and “standing with Ukraine.” Why let a crisis go to waste? We’ve already seen the usual worthies telling us to “turn down the thermostat to defeat Putin.” You can bet they won’t be.
If the globalist strategy does work, they will better prepared to face China and Iran. If in their best-case scenario Putin is toppled, we may well see a globalist installed in Russia. This would aid them no end. Worst case the Russian army stays home and doesn’t aid the other Axis powers, best case it can threaten Chinese security from the North. This may well be why China will want Putin to stay where he is and aid Russia directly or indirectly. A two-front war with a U.S. backed Taiwan and Russia to the North is a nightmare scenario for them. If Putin succeeds, Russia looks strong, his position is cemented, and he will gain in popularity at home. Everyone loves a winner. The other Axis powers will be emboldened. China is already testing the Taiwanese air defence zone, while Iran is firing off ballistic missiles at targets in Iraq. And don’t forget little Rocket Mani in north Korea, who has restarted test firing missiles now that Trump is no longer there to mind the shop.
What is the situation on the ground? Hard to tell. As the saying goes, the truth is the first casualty in any war. I do not believe the Russians have lost 13,000 troops killed. This would be in excess of the U.S. casualties suffered on Omaha Beach during D-Day, and nothing I have seen so far indicated that level of Resistance from the Ukrainians. However, neither are the Russians performing some kind of latter-day Blitzkrieg. They have taken ground, but it seems it is not the quick and easy victory they were expecting. Ukrainians have not welcomed them in droves. Men have returned from abroad to fight. The Ukrainian army in the East is still fighting. It seems the Russian tried to get to Kiev (yes, it is Kiev, not Kyiv) quickly and capture the government. This failed. UK supplied NLAWs and Turkish drones seem to be effective in stopping Russian armour. We then face the prospect of a longer war that drains Russia and Ukraine, while also damaging economies in Europe and North America, affecting the poorest in society as usual. Just what the globalists ordered. After all, you will own nothing, but you will be happy.
© Jonathon Davies 2022
