Reform are at all times high with the latest polls predicting a huge majority and the Conservatives being reduced to just 7 MPs. However, the next election could be some years away (at the time of writing it is a maximum of 3 years, 9 months and 30 days). How likely is it they can maintain this lead, or have they peaked too early?
In this article I consider the factors for and against them wining the next election. Please note – I am not considering whether a Reform government would be a good or bad thing. Plenty of Puffins have their doubts – I am just trying to analyse whether their lead is sustainable until the next election.
There are many reasons I believe Reform will maintain or even grow their lead:
- We need a change – in my lifetime all I’ve known is a Tory or Labour government (with a small contribution from the LibDems during 2010 to 2015). The Thatcher government was by far the best – not perfect by any means, but the best. Every government since has seen the UK decline in almost every way possible. Many people I talk to would vote for Reform just to try something different and to give Labour and the Tories a good kicking.
- Immigration – Despite many commitments / promises and lots of hot air, neither Labour or the Tories have acted to reduce immigration to acceptable levels. They have done the exact opposite, going against what the majority voted for. Even worse is the way in which immigrants (especially those here illegally) are treated compared to the indigenous Brits who wait patiently to be housed by their local council or given assistance to live a decent life. This treachery alone deserves not to go unpunished.
- The Economy – Since the global financial crisis of 2007/8 our economy has pretty much flatlined with anaemic growth and unsustainable levels of borrowing. The way the Tory government acted over COVID caused even more damage, increasing the national debt to beyond recoverable levels. Over this period the average person in the UK has seen the value of their money eroded and their standard of living reduced causing much discontent, especially amongst those who are the worst off. The anger on the streets is palpable and it’s no wonder that people are expressing their displeasure against those they feel are being prioritised unfairly. As a result of this lacklustre growth, we are facing unsustainable levels of taxation in an attempt to stop the ship from sinking. The fact the government are doing little to reduce spending is simply inexcusable.
- Hatred of Politicians – Hate is a strong word, but many people would agree that figures like Starmer, Reeves, Lammy, Badenoch, Davey etc are people they cannot stand the sight of, let alone listen to. For me Two Tier Keir is by far the worst with his lecturing tone, lies and deceit. Many people do not like Farage, but a greater number do and like him or not, he does have a natural ability to connect with the ordinary man and woman on the streets, talking about issues that matter to them and offering common sense solutions.
- Blame Culture – All we hear from Labour is the reason they need to raise taxes or the way they are dealing with immigration, is due to the mess they inherited from the Tories. Whilst this is, in part, true, they are well past the point where this is an acceptable excuse and most of the reasons they cite are completely fabricated. Again, more lies. Voters would respect them owning their own mistakes, but that goes against the grain for the average MP.
- People No Longer Need Permission To Support Reform – From a young age I was aware that it was “OK” to publicly display your support for left-wing parties, whilst those on the right tended to be more reserved, keeping their political beliefs to themselves. As support for Reform has grown I believe voters are being more confident in coming out and saying they would vote for Reform. No longer do they fear being labelled as right-wing. The furore over the English, Scottish, Welsh and Union flags has galvanised people like I’ve never witnessed before.
- Being Labelled as “Far Right” and “Racists” – this I think is perhaps one of the most compelling reasons why people are increasingly turning to Reform. One thing no one likes is a government threatening them and labelling you as something you are not. A good politician would read the room and adopt a new strategy. TTK clearly isn’t in this camp as everything he and his MPs do is add more fuel on to the fire, driving more voters to support Reform.
These are the factors I believe go against Reform keeping their poll lead up to the next General Election:
- Nigel Farage – Some voters will never support Reform because of Farage. Whether it is his personality, the way which he runs Reform or reservations about his ability to actually effect change when in government. All valid reasons.
- Reform Won’t Be Any Different to LIBLABCON – Even if Reform did form the next government, there are many people who believe they won’t be any different from Labour or the Tories. This could be in part because many from the Tory party have been welcomed into the Reform party. This would certainly be a major concern for me. Even without this threat Reform will have to be prepared to fight on many fronts, including the civil service, unions and lawyers. We’ve seen how hard it has been for Trump battling on against the same enemies. This, I believe, will be the main reason for voters to despair. Having said that, if Reform cannot do it with a large majority the alternative is civil war, in my opinion.
- Scandals – No political party is immune from scandals. Politics tends to attract he worst people in society, as has been evidenced all our lives. With only a handful of MPs the scope for a scandal is limited, but not impossible. Perhaps the greatest threat comes from the many Reform councillors elected in local elections. There have been, and will continue to be, bad actors in their midst but perhaps not high profile enough to be a major concern.
- Attacks From The Media – We can confidently predict that the media will continue their attacks on Farage and Reform. Goodness knows what levels of insanity they will get up to as the election draws to a close. Increasingly voters are starting to wake up and realise the BBC, ITV, SKY and other MSM are liars. Even those still with doubts will possibly conclude they have little to lose by voting Reform.
In summary, I believe there are more reasons for Reform to maintain their lead than not. Time will tell of course. I only wish the general election will happen sooner than later so we can rid ourselves of this awful Labour government.
© Reggie 2025
