SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 update 2

Rookwood, Going Postal
Walking down the street
AzchaelLicence CC BY 2.0

I’m not a happy author right now. On Thursday night (27th), I put together a preliminary article on COVID19, surmising the outcome if the Pope catches the bug. 48 hours later, and he is currently laid low with an “Illness”. The disease was also contained in the UK at that point. So my apologies in advance if this article appears a bit disjointed as I cut and paste, rewrite, and rework 2500+ words into something cohesive, pertinent, informative and readable. I am also going to quietly pat myself on the back, as I predicted this would happen in my original piece.

As I write, SARS-CoV-2 is now in the wild in the UK. By that, I mean any possible containment is impossible. We have got to face the fact that a substantial proportion of the population will get this virus. There is a “golden hour” when it comes to resuscitation of critically sick patients, and a similar rule applies in the containment of infectious disease. I have consistently stated that the only way we can gain any traction over this foe, be it a naturally occurring evolution (unlikely), an escaped biological pathogen (likely) or a premeditated bio-weapon (possible) – is effective containment of suspect and actual cases. The dismal efforts so far by the UK and American authorities are testament to the fact that the are doubling down and are aiming to use this crisis for seemingly dark political ends.

Talk about mixed messages. We have the Pope (or possibly a decoy a la Hussein, Hitler, Stalin, Yeltsin, Kissinger et al) going walkabout in the middle of a x-demic (replace x with the multiplier of your choice), shaking hands etc. while Northern Italy spirals into panic and lock down. 401 cases with 12 deaths, a morbidity rate of ~ 3% is all it took on Thursday. A few days later, and we are at 1,128 cases with 29 fatalities. Empty shelves, strict geographical quarantine measures with 3 months jail time for any miscreant. The faecal matter hasn’t even reached the fan yet, and the global media is ramping up for the mother of all black campaigns. We are being deliberately lied to, and on an unprecedented scale. I have a very uneasy feeling about all of this, not so much concerning COVID19 per se, but the surrounding psycho-socio-economic impact and national morale. The tell tale signs are all there if you look, the devil always overplays his hand. And the stench of sulphur was strong on Channel 4 News late last week.

The “Tell” was one short, eight word sentence, overlaid with moving scenes of the Pope in Vatican City embracing the public. Far be it for me to cast aspersions on the leader of the Catholic Church, but for a man of his advanced years he either has an incredible level of faith or foolishness to undertake such intimate gestures in these watershed times. He certainly has not been advised by any respectable physician, particularly if he has any pre-existing conditions. For all I know, the worldwide media reports of his presence might be archived footage, or indeed a hologram. Don’t believe me? Go visit Brent Council, where the receptionist is indeed one [1]. I have spent many months working in Milan, and the Italians, despite their reputation in the Second World War, won not only my respect, but my heart. Warm, gregarious, caring and affectionate, I made many friends there, despite the language barrier. The culture of hugging and kissing, leaves no doubt as to why Italy has been hit so hard. Which poses a lingering question, in such a family oriented, close, community – why would the leader of the Roman church demonstrate such a bad example and reckless disregard for public health during a “Pandemic” ? Does he know something we don’t, or is this just another public spectacle as demonstrated by Prince Charles out and about in flood hit areas?

The clue was in the voice-over. “The world for once has a common enemy” was the dire refrain, and I realised at that point that this is no ordinary seasonal flu outbreak. Irrespective of casualties, that one, short, sharp prick of the pitchfork confirmed that SARS-CoV-2, rather than being just a potential existential threat, is part virus, part psychological warfare. Having lost traction with the election of President Trump and Brexit, the globalists will now attempt to milk every last millilitre of blood from the corpse of national sovereignty, in an effort to capitalise on this humanitarian tragedy. The goal, as always in such stage managed situations, is to get the populace to shut up, swallow their dose of fear and panic, and do what they are all damned well told, on the threat of the latest bogeyman. For the sake of the children, the planet, or whatever the latest Cause célèbre is, we must happily dance around the global phallus and do what our bullying, lying, corrupt, child abusing establishment tell us to do. This has been policy since the Cold War, and you just need to read documents like Report from Iron Mountain [2], the RAND organisation or the Club of Rome to fully appreciate the agenda of the powers behind the throne that are directing this.

Think of this purely from a PR campaign viewpoint. We currently have Jon Snow self isolating, Elton John taken offstage with “Pneumonia” and the father of the Catholic church out kissing in public. Can you imagine the scenario if any of these catch COVID19 and dies? Or the alternative, darker, scenario, if they survive the experience, thereby ratcheting down the national situational awareness level and making people complacent, accelerating the spread? So it is essential that our mind is in the right place, we are clear headed, and focussed if we are not to be consumed by the bleakness of it all. Part of that is taking personal responsibility, and accepting the fact that if the wheel does come off, while we live in a civilised nation for the most part, that situation may change rapidly without warning, irrespective of virus outbreaks.

I am in no doubt in my heart that this virus is not, I repeat, not a natural evolution. The pathology and genetics are not right [3]. Apart from the glib WHO figures (which are suggesting the bug is dying out in China just as it takes off elsewhere), there is a paucity of data based on age, gender, pre-morbid conditions and race. The epidemiologists will say that release of this information is meaningless until the epidemic is over, and patient confidentiality is of prime importance. I disagree. When facing such catastrophe, we need as many facts as possible. All I know so far is that this is a disease of old men. The anecdotal evidence suggests otherwise. Mortality seems to be between 3-16%, with Iran taking a substantial hit here. Is this down to poor healthcare, bad hygiene or other factors? We know the true figures in China are a proportion of the reported number of casualties, but the same logic applies there. While I would love to argue my case based on facts and evidence, there is so little of it, other than orchestrated PR spin to make any valued judgement. All we can say at this point is this is a highly infectious bug with a mortality rate far exceeding that of a bad flu season, yet far below the 30-50% mortality rate of the medieval Black Death.

This suggests to me this is an economy killer, rather than a bio-weapon in the classic sense. Bio-weapons are notoriously difficult to manage, unless of course you have an antidote. SARS-CoV-2, like HIV, attacks the functioning of the bodies immune system, which has led some to suggest it might have morphed inside an AIDS victim. RNA replication of viruses is very much a crap shoot, as they don’t always replicate with 100% accuracy. Which is why your annual flu shot has to be different for each strain every year. From a statistical point of view, while you might be covered for type X of the flu, there will be any number of other strains around, so vaccination will only protect you against a specific type big pharma decides is the bogeyman this season. Due to the way SARS-CoV-2 interacts with T-Cells, this has led to a number of people to suggest that a vaccine will not be forthcoming, something which again, hammers home the point this is not the flu in the traditional sense. There is evidence to suggest that the Chinese have been hit particularly bad as there may have been a prior inoculation program against SARS, and that has caused individuals exposed to SARS-CoV-2 to experience a fatal cytokine storm, thus supporting anecdotal reports of individuals just dropping dead. Between that and any racial vulnerability due to ACE2 receptors, all of this is naturally pure conjecture at this point, but without any quality data, it just feeds into the cycle of fear and the unknown. Which is exactly why, I believe they are not releasing this critical information.

As the saying goes, better prepared than scared. It is down to the individual and their family to decide what is the most appropriate course of action, but I would urge a word of caution here in that we must also have a clear conscience. If we all go out and panic buy, the chances of infrastructure collapse increase. The American model of preparing, while very apt for such an independent nation, is not a good model for this island. To start with, as a populace we are not armed, and if the wheel comes off in the US expect severe civil disturbance, if not martial law. This has been on the cards for some years now, and the perfect storm of a divided, President Trump hating nation and a national crisis would be sufficient to light the blue touch paper. I have it on good authority that the US will be hit hard by this, as certain States approach third world levels of hygiene due to mass immigration and homelessness [4]. The politicisation of this crisis will only worsen the situation. With tens of thousands currently in self isolation in the US alone, don’t be surprised if the US hits the panic button.

As usual with COVID19, the news is a mixed bunch. Depending on the algorithm you want to use to calculate the mortality rate, according to the John Hopkins figures this is currently 3.42% (Total deaths / Total confirmed) or 6.9% (Total Deaths / Total Deaths + Total Recovered). The current R0 (Infectiousness) is between 2.06-2.52 (2.28) based on the Diamond Princess cruise ship figures [5]. This is an increase both in mortality and infectiousness over my previous figures, which is disappointing, but nowhere near as pessimistic as the Wikipedia entry which places R0 at 6.6 [6]. According to the WHO figures, men had a death rate of 2.8% while women had a death rate of 1.7%. If you are under 50 the risk of death is less than 0.5% compared to more than 8% in the 70+ range. Encouragingly, no deaths have occurred in those under 10 at the time of writing. These figures though, are at odds not only with the JHU figures, but with the substantial anecdotal evidence coming out of China and Iran. More worryingly still, the WHO point blank refuses to declare a pandemic, despite the CDC announcing on the 27th it is not a matter of “If” but “When”, as far as an outbreak in the US is concerned. Even this pronouncement lacks credibility, as it is clearly politicised [7].

On that basis, I would urge caution. By all means be prepared, be sensible and take whatever precautions you deem reasonable, but try and avoid absorbing all the negativity and panic the mainstream media will try to envelop you with. Remember the 6 P’s – Prior Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance. Being aware of what is going on and having a security blanket, however insignificant, will help counter that. In preparing this article, I have spent far too many hours digging in books and articles that would give you nightmares. According to historical records, during the Black Death, Italy had a quarantine period of 40 days, which meant as a result, they had infrequent epidemics, unlike the French [8]. Which explains their current hard quarantine stance. Considering the Black Death wiped out half of Europe in 3 years, we are not in the same league here with COVID19. Even with the most grim figures, an R0 of 10, 25 day incubation period, a 10% mortality and complications rate, the population reduction is only 19.4% over the same period. Any self-respecting epidemiologist would laugh at these figures being applicable to SARS-CoV-2, based on the Chinese data, which unfortunately is all we have got to go on for now. I’m confident that in Europe, and indeed the UK, we will be in a much better position than China.

I’m not so confident about recursive black swan events. My biggest concern apart from the psychological impact is the supply chain, the national infrastructure and the economic impact. Proctor & Gamble have stated 17,600 products are at risk due to 387 Chinese suppliers being offline [9]. China is the workshop of the world, everything from memory chips to pharmaceuticals is produced there. According to the WHO, the epidemic peaked and plateaued between the 23rd of January and the 2nd of February, and has been declining steadily since then. So in theory, China should start winding back up fairly soon, if for no other reason than national pride. If they don’t, something is very amiss with the WHO figures. So keep an eye on the Baltic index [10] and marine traffic [11].

As to me, the more I look at this outbreak, the more I am reminded of the wicked agendas of certain NGO’s. Extinction Rebellion is a clear euphemism for extinction of the old and the rebellion of the young. Their rise to fame just prior to this outbreak is rather sinister when reading this quote from the Club of Rome, “The common enemy of humanity is man. In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. All these dangers are caused by human intervention, and it is only through changed attitudes and behaviour that they can be overcome. The real enemy then, is humanity itself. [12]” If that isn’t a fitting geopolitical motive for driving the current crisis, I don’t know what is. Hang on a second, strike that. There is a better one, pandemic derivatives bonds [13][14]. That at least suggests why the WHO are being so “conservative” with their figures. Buckle up folks.

[1] Brent Council hologram receptionist
[2] Report from Iron Mountain
[3] Coronavirus genetics
[4] San Francisco poop crisis
[5] Diamond Princess R0 figures
[6] Wikipedia Coronavirus entry
[7] Coronavirus and Rod Rosenstein
[8]Italy and the Black Death
[9] P & G supply chain woes
[10] The Baltic Index
[11] Maritime traffic
[12]Club of Rome quote and the Green Agenda
[13] Pandemic derivatives
[14]World bank launches pandemic financing

© Rookwood 2020

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