I had barely heard of Venezuela, sum total of facts known were.. it was in South America, it had a dictator who maybe rigged the last election to remain President and looked a bit like Pinochet (I think it is the moustaches); the population were impoverished by socialism which will totally, totally work some day, and recently Trump authorised shooting their boats due to muh drugs or something and seemed to be itching for more.
And then .. on 3rd January 2026, in a daring raid ‘Operation Absolute Resolve’, they lifted Maduro and his wife and took them to the United States. The Operation managed to get past air defences and including bombing the tomb of Maduro’s predecessor, Chavez and killed some people, apparently Cuban, in the process. The Americans apparently lost no personnnel or even helicopters (no Black Hawk Down here). All over in 24 hours, another American regime change.
There was some outrage from some on both the left and the right but with more muted moans from those who seemed to care about this sort of thing usually so, being retired and some time on my hands, I paid more interest than usual to what my favourite commentators were saying. Disclaimer: first of all, I am no expert but I think that I am pretty objective (I really don’t care about Vuvuzela). As an old woman I was not involved in the covert ops nor am I at the heart of the US adminstration, just an armchair observer and therefore talking from no position of expertise. Of course, commentators have their own agendas that try to sway you to their viewpoint. I also wont be citing sources for every comment as I cannot remember them all! So, interesting commentators include The Duran, Nick Dixon, Academic Agent, Black Pigeon, and various Lotus Eaters.
Main Stream Media are useless for analysis although you can get the bare facts. I thought the Independent’s minute by minute account of the ‘arrest’ was quite good. The language sets the agenda, why not refer to it as an abduction or kidnapping? The BBC have apparently banned journalists for saying the word ‘kidnapped’. Starmer did not condemn seizing Maduro but Ed Davey did. Russia said that the action ‘gives rise to deep concerns and warrants condemnation; China’s foreign ministry said ‘such hegemonic acts of the US seriously violate international law’.
The US carried out a coup and in a break with recent tradition Trump did not cite bringing democracy to a beleaguered people, or even drugs smuggling into the US but in remarks aboard Airforce One said: ‘It’s a dead country right now…We have to bring it back, and we are going to have big investments by oil companies’.
Commentators listed a number of reasons for the action. They were:
- Oil. Apparently Venezuala has the biggest oil reserves in the world although commenators varied as to how valuable the reserves are due to the quality of the oil. Production has fell off a cliff in recent years. Customers include China. Larry Johnson says that the capacity to extract and refine the oil cannot be easily expanded. Others, such as Tilak Doshi say that there is some capacity for refining oil and US companies that can invest to produce more. Related to this it will help to secure other US resources as well as oil. Such activity is entirely in line with the November 2025 National Security Strategy. Some say that this maps across to Elon Musk’s grandfather’s support for a plan for a Technate of America that went from Greenland to Latin America.
- Shore up the petrodollar. The petrodollar helps to prop up the demand for dollars and therefore finance the the US economy. Black Pigeon made the point that Maduro was supplying oil outside the petrodollar system. This could not be allowed to continue. Funnily enough others who tried to break the petrodollar stranglehold such as Saddam and Gaddafi also found themselves regime changed.
- The US unbinds itself from the Neocon doctrinal imposition of muh-democracy in its relationships with other countries. It sends a signal that there will be a more transactional relationship between the US and other countries due to their pre-eminant position. This was covered well by Nick Dixon with a hilarious video from Andrew Tate talking about the US along with China and Russia being Tier 1 countries, a few others being Tier 2 who could choose who to partner with, and the rest ‘shithole countries’. Dixon quite rightly said that maybe Israel is also a Tier 1 country?
- To send a message to recalcitrant leaders. Related to this is the bombing of Chavez’s tomb. Note that Maduro was paraded in front of the cameras. Firas Modad observed that taking out awkward leaders this was a tactic of the assassins in the Middle East . The message is, leaders of countries in our sphere do not humilate the US, do as we tell you or you could find a special forces fella in your bedroom and by the way we are not shy about it.
- Larry Johnson mentioned that Netanyahu met Trump shortly before the raid. He suggested that access to oil supplies would be shored up as, if they go to war in Iran and the Straits of Hormuz close, then they would need alternative supplies. This does contradict his earlier point about the oil.
- Rumours of a swap deal with Russia, Venezuala for Ukraine. This is reported at msm.com.
- Drug trafficking. Not even the Trump regime is citing this as a reason now.
I have listed these in order of my view of the likely reasons for the Operation. Of course it could be all of the above! There were other notable theories but I would consider these second order effects. These include a message to Columbia and Mexico who are most involved in the drug trade to the US to co-operate and helpful positions created for Trump regime friends such as Paul Singer who had bought cheap Venezuelan debt. There may be others I have not picked up of course.
So, whats next. Maduro was arraigned to the court in Southern Dictrict of New York. Not a Trump-friendly court so maybe he will get off. Maybe the plan is for Maduro to quietly retire out of the limelight after a period of performative lawfare?
It has certainly sent a message to those outside the US who felt maybe that the country no longer had the capacity or appetite for risk for such an operation after the failiures in Ukraine and Afghanistan. It also sends a message to it’s allies (or is it satrapies?), that you had better co-operate. Certainly it is telling that there was muted condemnation of the action in the UK. It was quite amusing seeing people call for regime changing Starmer. Since the operation the UK has been used as a base for a build-up of US aircraft and actions have been taken against tankers in British waters. A clear message to do as you are told Airstrip One?
In the EU the supposed top diplomat Kaja Kallas said ‘the principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected’. Laughable really from the ex-Estonian leader. The US has now announced the withdrawal from a slew of international agreements and talking about annexing Greenland again.
Internationally, with this one play the US has upended the board. It feels like Imperial politics has returned. As to the ‘International Rules Based Order’ it reminds me of Gulliver held down by the ropes of the Liliputians. The US has now burst those ropes and are using their power. Long-term will the play work? Well, we have to see whether the Venezualan regime will co-operate and whether the US gets dragged into protracted conflict, as they did in Iraq and other countries. Also, the Trump regime while making a power play abroad still seems bounded at home. Noted lawyer, Robert Barnes, condemns Trump citing the Consitution. Weasals within the deep state and at a state level continue to frustrate his agenda at home. Voters may well punish Trump at the mid-terms for not addressing the agenda that he was voted in on.
Who knows what will happen next. Love Trump or hate him it is not business as usual.
2026 has started with a literal bang .. who knows what it will bring and how it will impact on us here in the UK.
Happy New Year All.
© @Alurka 2026
