An Introduction to the Overton Window of Political Possibility
There have been some impressive and heated election debates here and on other political blogs in the past few days.
The merits of strategic voting against a vote for what you truly believe, the merits of the Boris WA, is it a sell out or a genuine game plan to enable a true Brexit?
Will the Brexit party split the vote or are they the one true faith?
Will a Corbyn government ultimately lead to a right wing backlash or should we simply stock up on tinned food and not get too attached to family pets, just in case?
Is a clean Brexit ultimately even possible or will it be crushed by massive globalist interests?
I have read persuasive arguments for all of these points of view and concluded that, in fact, no one really knows, we all have our opinions, which to be fair, are generally quite well researched. I’m not going to argue against any debate, it should be reasonably dignified but other than that everything is ‘on the table’, except the NHS, of course!
I don’t expect any of us to links arms and sing Ebony and Ivory (oh why can’t we all just get along) because every opinion is equally valid. When Friday the 13th comes along some will say, told you so and some will go the way of Political Pig, the silence of the pigs, but even then the ultimate conclusion will still be uncertain.
What concerns me far more than the nature of the debate is that all this deliberation is in house really, this is not the great public dialectic where multiple perspectives are analysed by the population and a consensus is reached. Far from it, we are essentially a closed shop arguing amongst ourselves, we are the engaged minority, we are the ones that care what happens but our numbers are few, there is a positive aspect to this as I will outline further on.
If you look at the voting figures, the 75 to 85% turnouts of the 50s, 60s and 70s are a thing of the past, we hovered around 60% during the Blair years and only now are we creeping back up to just below 70%. In other words 3 out of 10 voters do not even bother to get involved. I know who they are, I see them in my market square in Velcro clothing for easy dressing, staring into their mobile phones hoping to glimpse the meaning of life or possibly playing Pink Casino.
There are, of course, many voters who have shifting or fixed affiliations but in general they simply vote on the day, their involvement does not extend to the grass roots, the party membership, that’s where the true power lies.
The most recent figures show that just around 1 million people are members of a political party and a good part of the Labour party members are co-opted through union membership, however the number of registered voters for 2017 elections was 46,148,00.
From that 46 million only around 1 million are active party members, just a fraction over 2%, not 1 in 10 even, just 1/5 in 10. Never overestimate the political fervour of the British, that level of involvement in the political process is negligent if not criminal, we live with the consequences of this today.
Here’s an interesting figure for all Conservatives, have a guess at their grass roots membership, I’ll tell you, it was 191,000 in September of this year, that’s .00413% of the entire electoral register, that’s how small it is, that’s what controls the essence of conservatism in the UK and that’s how small it is, 191,000 for the entire UK.
Now, I understand the disenchantment of old school conservatives, the party no longer represents us, they have moved to a liberal or left leaning standpoint, they are soft on immigration and law and order etc etc, I know all that but this is not some Mafia organisation, this is not a political Godzilla. If you can’t beat it, join it and change it.
I can hear in the distance the faint murmurings of, they are dead to me, never again, I don’t trust them, Boris blah blah. I understand that but that is not the big picture, if you don’t like them then change them. Make them work for you, it can be done but it requires a coordinated effort.
191,000 membership, I would guess at least half those would support our views, maybe more than that, so 50,000 new party members could have a significant effect on party policy, enough to change the party direction? Quite possibly, the snowball factor also comes into play here, the more the party reverts to its old default setting the more like minded people sign up.
I’m very far from a conservative recruiter, this is not a Boris whitewash or even vote Tory on the 12th, that is everyone’s individual decision but I am suggesting a pragmatic approach for the future whichever way it rolls. I despise what the Tories are today but what do we have instead? We might hope Nigel succeeds but in truth I feel he is a terrible warning to the Tories rather than the way forward, he will not effect lasting change for the right.
A new party? We’ve seen the ERG crumble, there will be no split there, UKIP, now defunct, gone the way of the Betamax, it could have been a contender but I genuinely believe it was sabotaged, I think many Kippers reading this will agree. How many years to rebuild something similar?
The Overton Window shifts rapidly left, we are reaching the point where even a regular opinion is extremism, there is still one party at least conservative in name, it would not be so hard to seize the ship and change its direction. I’ll say again 191,000 and 50,000 would do it. We can just bitch about it or we can try to change it.
To be absolutely clear, at this point in time I disagree with almost all Tory policy. They are wrong on immigration, they are wrong on appeasement, they are wrong on policing, they are weak on education and the NHS, they are wrong on Europe, they are wrong on environment. I don’t want to support any of that, I just want the brand name, that is still the one thing that is powerful, we need to take that back and with it, its latent support.
This is not fantasy politics, it is achievable. For argument, let’s say there are 2000 in and out of this site on a monthly basis and the same on other conservative sites not to be mentioned, 4000 people there who can join the party, each can recruit at least 4 family members or workmates, we all know that many who would sign up, we all know many angry people who would do this. You’ve got 20,000 right there, it just requires a bit of organization, probably by regional groups and it could really escalate.
I know it sounds like a chain letter but what if it succeeds? How do you think the Marxists took control of the unions, not by huge numbers but by subverting the original product, it’s not complicated. Once in place though there is huge strength in numbers, like minded people selecting their own candidates, shifting the window back, this would however have massive support amongst the old grass roots too and in turn it would bring so many more new members, there has never been a better moment.
© Viciousbutfair 2019
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