Here we go again. The power struggle between Nationalists and Globalists continues. I did so dearly hope to be writing from a post-EU Britain, but here we are. A brief reminder that I previously wrote that politics was breaking down from the old Left/Right split and reforming along Globalist and Nationalist lines, in the UK, USA and across the world. (Since then I have read the same thing months later in the old legacy media, still behind the curve.) The EU referendum highlighted and accelerated this split, with new parties forming and people defecting from the legacy parties to the new. UKIP, which has been the insurgent party in the past, is also once again on the rise with increased membership and polling higher. The old parties of the Conservatives and Labour are on the ropes and struggling to deal with the new reality. So where are we now a few months on?
Both Conservative (82%) and Labour voters (69%) say that the resuming cross-party Brexit talks won’t help in breaking the current impasse https://t.co/pDSO6mqB0n pic.twitter.com/QDznKIzMfQ
— YouGov (@YouGov) April 23, 2019
I outlined some questions at the end of my last piece. Would May’s deal come back a third time, and would it pass. Yes, it returned, no it didn’t pass. Would there be another referendum? This still seems unlikely. Will the ERG finally breakaway to form its own party, similar to the Independent Group? No, they appear not to have the balls to leave. Will May remain as PM? The 1922 committee seem to want to remove Theresa May, allegedly over fears of Boris Johnson leading the party, though how he could make it worse at this point is anyone’s guess. Will we ever leave? This, the overwhelming question, is still up in the air.
1/ Many things make sense if you see May as an evil genius that set out to stop us leaving from the start. First, campaigning for Remain. pic.twitter.com/VEm84fr6pw
— Jonathan "Fear of God" Davies (@JonD99) April 8, 2019
How did we get to this position? Theresa May brought back her zombie deal once again, despite it being unpopular and knowing it would quite likely fail. Why would she do this? Many things make sense if you see May as an evil genius that set out to stop us leaving from the start. First, campaigning for Remain. Then the leadership. Her pets in the pro-Tory media savage Leadsom, meaning no leadership contest. Delaying the triggering of Article 50. Employing Robbins to negotiate, while bypassing David Davis. The pretend negotiations while agreeing to the stitch up deal, while Baker was side-lined. The terrible election campaign, seemingly crazy policies like fox hunting and stealing old people’s homes. All done to weaken the Tories and push back the next election to 2022. Bringing her deal before Parliament, knowing it is stealth Remain. Deliberately winding up the ERG so they call a no confidence vote too early. Then continually bringing back the deal and extending Article 50. Then collaborating with Corbyn, knowing her party cannot remove her and there will be no general election. All that remains is another referendum and revoke Article 50. But maybe I’m just paranoid.
Westminster voting intention:
via @ORB_Int, 16 – 17 Apr
First VI from the pollster this parliament.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) April 21, 2019
Then we have had Parliament “taking control.” This resulted in an omnishambles, with repeated rounds of indicative votes that indicated nothing, except that MPs can’t agree and are generally incompetent time wasters. The one overriding message of the so-called “Brexit” (I hate that word) process is that are political class are useless. They have had well over 1,000 days to sort out leaving the EU, nearly three years. That can must have a lot of dents in it after being kicked down the road for so long. They don’t want to leave without a deal, won’t vote for a deal, but can’t agree on anything else. The way forward is still no clearer. Instead the Prime Minister has now entered talks with Labour to come up with some kind of deal.
UK: ConservativeHome poll reveals that 62% of the Conservative (ECR) party members intend to vote for the Brexit (EFDD) party in the upcoming European election election. #EP2019 #Brexit pic.twitter.com/m5Xotibesc
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) April 22, 2019
The Conservatives appear to be paralysed by fear and indecision. As stated, the 1922 Committee won’t oust May. They are stuck with a failing leader who cannot pass her deal, with Cabinet discipline breaking down and repeated leaks, who now is negotiating with their sworn enemies in labour. The ERG who want to leave the EU won’t even leave the Conservative Party. They could break away and create their own group, avowedly nationalist and pro-Leave. Yet they still cling to the old legacy politics, maybe out of some misguided old-fashioned notion of loyalty. This despite the party betraying the referendum result, its own leave MPs, party members and its own voters. Witness the scenes where Dominic Grieve was put forward for deselection, by furious local association members, only to see it overturned by CCHQ.
Soros held secret talks with the EU about another referendum. The details are being withheld to "protect the EU's decision-making process." So a foreign billionaire and a foreign power were potentially interfering in our democracy.
— Jonathan "Fear of God" Davies (@JonD99) April 25, 2019
This is a series of catastrophic strategic and tactical errors. Polls now show the Tories well down, some below 30%. Meanwhile support for the Brexit Party surges and UKIP slowly rises. Leave voters will not forget the referendum result, nor the betrayal of that vote, nor will they forgive. In my view the only thing that can save the Tory Party from electoral oblivion is getting rid of May, installing a leaver as leader and exiting the EU on WTO terms. I am under no illusions that this would be without difficulties or that it would cause no disruption, especially in the short term. But we are where we are. The Tories need to re-orientate themselves as an openly nationalist party. Failure to do so will lead to electoral oblivion. A large part of me hopes they don’t, and they are consigned to the dustbin of history.
#Marr: "That was an unacceptable comparison, wasn't it?"
Lammy: "Andrew, I would say that that wasn't strong enough"
Labour MP David Lammy defends his choice of language around the Conservative Party’s ERG#Brexit https://t.co/5C4rTzDIKd pic.twitter.com/5xghQ9oLIE
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) April 14, 2019
Labour under Corbyn continue to do the EU hokey-cokey. In-out-in-out-shake it all about. They continue to walk the electoral tightrope of promising another referendum to remainers, under the guise of a “people’s vote” or the latest wheeze, a “confirmatory vote on the deal.” At the same time, they are promising to respect the referendum result and leave, putting forward the idea of a customs union as a way forward and a better deal than May’s. At the moment it is working for them. Just. They are ahead in national polls. Just. However, at some point the music will stop and everyone will have to find a chair. Labour will have to confirm which position they actually favour. Either way, they will shed voters either to Farage’s Brexit Party and UKIP, or to the Change UK Party with Chuka and friends.
EU citizens! From this day forward, our Adonis, the people's unelected politician (it's the EU way) is now, the far-right Adonis, pawn of the diabolical Corbyn, who won't deliver a second r…I mean confirmatory vote. I'm sure it's nothing to do with having to face actual voters. pic.twitter.com/mEhY9EmKEh
— Guy Verhoftwat (Parody) (@GuyVerhoftwat) April 25, 2019
Most of us sense that Corbyn actually wants out of the EU, along with his henchman Milne. You only have to witness the reverse-ferreting of Lord Adonis to take the party line to see the (hopefully) metaphorical thumb screws being applied. Corbyn wants nationalisation, lots of borrowing and higher taxes. The only way to be sure of doing this is to leave the EU, so he doesn’t fall foul of its laws on competition, taxes and single market integrity, if he ever gets in to power. In opposition to the Labour leave faction are the likes of Keir Starmer and the ever astute and eloquent David Lammy. Recently Lammy was seen berating the members of the ERG as Nazis, even stating that this condemnation was not strong enough. He also appeared at the latest stop Brexit rally, leading the crowd in chants of “They lied!” Labour are somewhat different in that their members and a great deal of their London voters are pro-Remain. However, in South Wales and the North of England many of them voted leave. Labour is just as divided as the Tories in many respects, being torn between its globalist metropolitan support, and its nationalist support out in the wider country.
Had a fantastic day out in London supporting the Justice for Veterans of Northern Ireland movement. Our ex-servicemen being prosecuted for defending their country. I was honoured to be ask to address them & pledge UKIP’s support. They have it 100%. pic.twitter.com/7j8rJj0wW4
— Gerard Batten MEP (@GerardBattenMEP) April 19, 2019
UKIP has seen a surge in membership and has secured funding. Gerard Batten may not be to everyone’s taste, but he has stabilised the party after some diabolical leaders. Some say he is a bit dour and doesn’t have the charisma of Farage. Well, maybe not being like Farage could be a good thing. UKIP are an out and out pro-leave nationalist party, nailing their colours to the mast. They have supported veterans marches as well as Brexit. there has been some controversy over links with a certain Tommy Robinson (not his real name) and the issue of extremist Islam. Tommy is like marmite, you either love him or hate him. One argument is that he is costing UKIP support as he is a favourite target of the mainstream media. The other side is that he brings a large audience, is a well-known name and raises their profile. Personally, I like Tommy, while the Sri Lanka bombings and the Shamima Begum debacle highlight the need to tackle radical Islam.
UKIP has also teamed up with internet celebrities Sargon of Akkad, a.k.a Carl Benjamin and Count Dankula a.k.a Markus Meechan. Both these are not without baggage themselves. Carl has been under fire from the media for an apparently controversial tweet stating he wouldn’t rape someone, while Markus was convicted of a “hate crime” after the video where he taught his dog to do a salute. Both are standing in the EU elections. The media are bound to target them, but again they bring large online audiences and appeal to the younger generation. Only time will tell if this is a winning strategy.
"I never thought I would say it in my life… but the only thing that can save us is Nigel Farage"
Senior MEP Guy Verhofstadt says Labour and Tories must reach cross-party deal on #Brexit to avoid being "wiped out" in next month's European electionshttps://t.co/QVbCBFEO12 pic.twitter.com/4aCYXS27vI
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) April 16, 2019
Now to the newbies. First, the Brexit Party. Nigel is well versed and is running a slick operation, with a diverse range of candidates. Nigel is charismatic and good in debates, plus he is a household name. Despite only recently forming, they are surging in the polls. If the Labour Party decide to finally become Pro-Remain, they could attract some of the old Labour vote and grow even more. For me, the Brexit Party appears to be the safe option for Tory members and voters to lodge a protest vote. This enables them to show their dissent over Brexit not being delivered, while at the same time avoiding the “racist” tag of UKIP, allowing for a bit of virtue signalling while at the same time feeling “radical.” Once May is removed and a Brexiteer installed and/or we leave the EU, they will go back to the Tory Party.
European Parliament voting intention:
via @YouGov, 15 – 16 Apr
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) April 17, 2019
This is why I can’t see Farage or his new party as anything different, or a break with the old LibLabCon politics. As others have said, it is acting as a Tory pressure group and release valve for Tory voters. I don’t expect it to be around for long. However, if it can depose May and deliver Brexit (a real Brexit) then it will have achieved much and possibly saved the nation. I prefer UKIP and Batten personally, they are definitely different and a change to the old ways, but Nigel may be better placed to rescue Brexit. Thus, we have the dilemma of who to vote for. I may vote Brexit Party in the European elections (I quite like Nathan Gill who is standing in Wales), but I would vote UKIP in a general election. Either way, I expect another disappearing act from Nigel in the near future.
EU citizens! If this doesn't fill you with confidence about more Europe, then nothing will. I particularly love the chunky white trainers. Class always tells. Farage is finished. pic.twitter.com/4ZaBW6sD2M
— Guy Verhoftwat (Parody) (@GuyVerhoftwat) April 23, 2019
The Change UK Party, formerly the Independent Group, is now up and running as a registered party for the EU elections. They are outright globalist and pro-Remain. The fact that both Tory and Labour MPs could swap over to them just shows how little there is to choose between the main two legacy parties. Born out of frustration with Corbyn’s stance on Brexit and the repeated Labour antisemitism scandals, they have taken some of the vote from Labour, appealing mostly to the London base. However, since launching there have been a string of gaffes. First there was the “funny tinge” incident on day one. They have now had two MEP candidates step down, one for alleged comments over Romanian pickpockets (I thought they were the pro-EU party?) and one over an alleged comment about black women. The party will likely do well with #FBPE types and Guardian readers. If Corbyn opts for leaving the EU, they could gather more Labour votes. Ironically, they could end up splitting the remain vote between themselves, the SNP, Plaid, the Greens, Labour and the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems continue to be largely irrelevant.
I fear that if leavers do not vote in EU elections and remain parties, such as the CUK's and Lib Dems do well, it will be taken as a sign that people want to cancel Brexit and a second referendum. Reluctantly, I conclude we need to vote. I will vote for UKIP/Brexit Party.
— Jonathan "Fear of God" Davies (@JonD99) April 11, 2019
So, what next? The proof of the pudding will be in the eating. We have the local elections and then the now almost certain EU elections. These will provide something of a barometer on how the nation is feeling. I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the local elections, which may be fought mainly on local issues. The Tories are certainly trying to promote these. That said, I would expect them to take a drubbing, as many Tory voters may simply just stay at home. The EU elections will be more interesting. They are being touted as a defacto second referendum on leaving. Here pro-leave parties may well come out on top. This will cause problems for the EU, as they are expecting a populist wave already and wanted rid of the UK beforehand. I think only a drubbing at the ballot box will wake the Tories to action. It’s always party first for them, as we know. Only when the party is truly existentially threatened will they act. It is right now, but they haven’t really realised it yet. I think may’s deal will be defeated again, talks with labour will fail and the prospect of a general election will not look good with May in charge. Corbyn will try everything to get an election, especially being ahead in the polls. Many a Tory, labour and Change MP will also not want to face the voters, many of them are remainers representing a leave constituency. If Grieve’s local association is anything to go by, the anger out there is real. I don’t think anyone can truly predict the outcome anymore. There are sure to be more twists and turns than we can ever imagine.
© Jonathon Davies 2019
The Goodnight Vienna Audio file