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American presidential elections are decided by an Electoral College, in effect an Electoral College swung by the voters in a small number key ‘battleground’ states which may tip either way in a presidential election.
In this presidential election, these key states are expected to be, in Electoral College votes order, Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6). Collectively, they provide 93 votes to an Electoral College of 538, meaning that a candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to win the contest.
As for a timetable for Puffins wanting to follow the results, compared to this side of the Atlantic, polls close early. According to the BBC, across the United States the first polls will close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT – i.e. our time) on Tuesday evening and, taking into account the different time zones heading west, the last polls will close at 06:00 our time early on Wednesday.
Last time around, US networks called the victory to Joe Biden on Saturday, 7th November, after what the BBC describes cryptically as the result in Pennsylvania ‘becoming clear’. Four years previously, in 2016, when Trump won the presidency, he was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) the day after the election.
In the year 2000, a tight contest in Florida meant the race was not decided until 12 December with George W Bush winning by one vote. That single vote being a one-justice majority on the US Supreme Court which put a stop to the Sunshine State’s farcical and never-ending recount process.
There follows a list of battleground states declarations in (possible) time order. Although we don’t take too much notice of opinion polls, as the results are called the disconnection with reality may give an idea of what’s happening (habbening?). The poll quote is the ABC/538 sampling published at 05:20 GMT (00:020 EST) on 5th November
01:00 am our time. Georgia’s, ‘early votes’ declared
Some of the first swing state results may come from Georgia, where state law requires that early votes (ie those cast before election day) must be counted and reported by 8 pm Eastern Time (01:00 our time) on election night – with the results of the full count to follow.
Georgia has 16 Electoral College votes. ABC/538 opinion poll: Trump 48.2%, Harris 47.5%. Advantage Trump by +0.7%
03:00 Arizona’s ‘first results’
In Arizona, officials can begin processing mail ballots as soon as they are received. First results are expected to be reported at about 10 pm Eastern Time (03:00 GMT), one hour after the polls close. However, the full count will take much longer. With only 0.3% separating the candidates in 2020, the full count and recounts dragged on until September 2021.
Arizona has 11 electoral votes. ABC/538 opinion poll: Trump 48.9%, Harris 46.8%. Advantage Trump by +2.1%
04:00 North Carolina
In this state, votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening, with the broadcaster Al Jazeera anticipating the final result by midnight local time, 04:00 our time.
North Carolina has 16 electoral college votes. ABC/538 opinion poll: Trump 48.3%, Harris 47.4%. Advantage Trump by +0.9%
‘Sometime on Wednesday’, Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, poll workers cannot begin processing ballots until Election Day, which means there could be delays, similar to those expected in Pennsylvania. According to a CNN report, results are not likely ‘until Wednesday’.
Wisconsin has 10 Electoral College votes. ABC/538 Nov 4th opinion poll: Trump 47.3%, Harris 48.3%. Advantage to Harris +1.0%
‘Days later’, Nevada
In 2020, Nevada was not called until five days after the election. The rules have changed with the count now expected to be completed earlier. Even so, the results might not be known on election night. The state allows late-arriving mail ballots (i.e. you can vote after the election’s over), so it could be days before the final result is known.
Nevada has 6 Electoral College votes. ABC/538 opinion poll: Trump 47.7%, Harris 47.4%. Advantage Trump +0.3%
‘Likely several days’, Pennsylvania
Perhaps the most important battleground state, Pennsylvania did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day. The state is one of only a few that do not allow election workers to begin processing mail ballots until Election Day, which means it will likely take several days before the results are known.
Pennsylvania has 19 Electoral College votes. ABC/538 opinion poll: Trump 47.8%, Harris 47.9%. Adnvatage to Harris 0.1%
‘No clear time’, Michigan
In Michigan, the counting could be faster than in previous elections, as it now allows officials to begin processing mail ballots before Election Day. However, Al Jazeera reports we do not have a clear time yet for when the state might be called.
Michigan has 15 Electoral College votes. ABC/538 opinion poll: Trump 47%, Harris 48%. Advantage Harris by +1%
Time to call your bookmaker
As the results come in, Puffins, especially those who enjoy a wager allowing for ‘cashing in’, should bear in mind last time’s ‘Red Mirage’ whereby Trump appeared to lead before a *cough* ‘Blue Shift’ took place as additional mail-in votes tipped the result towards Biden.
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