Polling Predictions #21

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

As you read this we stand on the edge of history, Opinion Polls are not allowed to be published on election day so we can expect a flurry of them by the Wednesday. History may not be hyperbole, it is the fervent wish of many to see the destruction of the Conservative and Unionist Party. This Party has outlived its usefulness and no longer does what it says on the tin. They are not conservative and seem to have abandoned Northern Ireland to the EU and Eire. Any other type of business would have been prosecuted under the Trade Descriptions Act but politicians exempt themselves from most kinds of scrutiny (and taxes).

This starts from Saturday and the Nigel news is that he is refusing to appear on Laura Kuensberg’s show until he gets an apology for the dishonest Question Time audience. Al-Jabeeba don’t do apologies especially to the far right so we are unlikely to see him on that channel before the polls open.

Most parties are reporting many undecided voters on the doorsteps so predictions of a Tory wipeout, according to the Tories, are not to be trusted. Really, if they are undecided how likely are they to choose the Tories when they do reach a decision.

A pretty sensational poll turns up from People Polling. It took place on the 25th to 26th of June and shows Keith’s tribe on 40%, Sunak’s shower on 15% and Nigel’s mob on 21%. That is a pretty large advantage for Reform. I just put these numbers into Electoral Calculus, a bit of a sledgehammer approach but …. Labour get 484 seats, LibDums get 73 seats, Reform get 27 and the Tories only get 21. Poor old Tories (only joking) are the 4th largest party, a shade ahead of the Scotch Nazis. Doubt if it will come to pass but watch out for Barnsley where Labour’s Stephanie Peacock is at risk of Reform taking her job. In reality it is more likely to be Galloway’s Gaza Party but who knows. Hull East is also predicted to fall, that’s Karl Turner’s seat. Karl is a bit of a Keith lookalike, how odd. The list of Tory fallers in this prediction is spectacular and includes the little brown chap, Swella Braverman, the very obnoxious Andrew Mitchell and Jeremy Bonus Hole. The 77th Brigade will be devastated to learn that Lt. Col. Tobias Ellwood is unlikely to be an MP after the 4th July. The pubs in the land will need to order in massive quantities of alcohol, it won’t only be puffins on the razzle.

The nonentity who calls himself Tom Tugendhat may well get his wish of becoming leader, there will be very few others left. Who will make up the 1922 committee, they will all be shadow something or other. Complete rewrite of the rules coming up. A few dozen MPs could hold their meetings in a Costa Coffee somewhere.

News arrives that NikNak is considering ennobling Scottish Secretary Alister Jack in the dissolution honours. This is the chap who placed 3 bets on the election date, one of which was a winner. Disrepute doesn’t even begin to describe it. There may well be a dissolution honours list and a Rishi gets the bum’s rush honours list. Poor old House of Lords, even more dross turning up.

Left eats left. After Miss Diane backed David Tennant against Kemi Badenoch, Wes Streeting has now told Tennant he should apologise to Kemi for telling her to “shut up”. No mention of the wishing she didn’t exist though. This Labour rabble will be at each other hammer and tongs by next weekend. It is a struggle to fathom the logic behind this racism stuff though to be fair, the Hackney Abacus has always struggled with logic.

It’s now Sunday and the polls are still showing the Tories around the 21% area and Reform on 16 to 17. Only a couple are showing Reform beating the Tories. At the risk of even more egg on my face I am sure the numbers will be the other way round on polling day.

Project “fear Labour” continues. The dwarf says Labour can’t be trusted and Grant “manynames” Shapps says you can’t trust Labour with Britain’s nuclear button. However true this may be you can trust the Tories even less. If manynames keeps his seat, he won’t, he is set to run for the leadership again. After July 5th he will slip down the memory hole where we all hope he will remain. Most of the Tories hoping to be in the leadership stakes are going to lose their seats. NikNak is now saying Keith could “inflict irreversible damage” on this country in only 100 days of taking office. Where on earth does this obsession with 100 days come from. It pops up all over the place. It obviously can’t be 99 because the correct answer to that is “change hands” but why not 101. I remain puzzled. It’s rather cheeky because the Tories don’t exactly have an unblemished record during their 14 years at the helm. Most of their immigration splurge seems to be irreversible. Eternally optimistic Kemi Badenoch and Swella Braverman have registered leadership campaign websites.

Finally some good news to report. The Tories are worried about causing more issues, in other words cocking up bigly, so they are going quiet into the final week. We live in expectation but not much hope. They are politicians after all. This didn’t stop NikNak going on Kuensberg’s show and doing his IBM salesman impression. Telling us how great it is going to be.

Nobody is interested but Sunday’s slapstick with old Potato Head was aqua aerobics and yes, he still looked like a berk.

Wildly clutching at straws the Tories have compared England’s late goal in Euro 2024 to them having a chance to win the election. Does anyone want to tell them.

Monday’s slapstick was bungee jumping, luckily for potato head the rope didn’t snap. I suppose it is a way of not being questioned about your weird beliefs and to be fair, with a predicted 60 or so seats it seems to be working. The nation’s favourite buffoon, aka the fat Turk, must be livid that someone has stolen his schtick. In a double whammy Ed was later seen joining a Zumba class in Wokingham.

While NikNak is warning that Labour would be much worse than the Tories have been, Keith is warning everyone to keep the far right out. Nigel Farage, in what is possibly double bluff, is warning against Marine le Pen saying her victory would be a disaster. Previously he had expressed support for her. There have also been a flood of donations to Reform, so much so that they are going to splurge £1 million on advertising during the last week of the campaign. Giles Watling, former Tory MP for Clacton, has described Reform rallies as reminiscent of the big rallies at Nuremberg. What a pillock, has he ever seen the Leni Riefenstahl film. Nigel’s response – he accuses the former vicar of showing contempt for decent people. Poor One Nation Giles is getting very wobbly, he’s not the right colour to get any advertising work unless he wants to push cremations or very overpriced 1/8th gold sovereigns.

In what can only be described as total delusion, the hindu dwarf says he is proud of the disastrous election campaign and claims he will win. Even he doesn’t look like he believes it and while opinion polls can be wrong, they can’t all be wrong by that much; in fact NikNak is now saying he wants to stay on even if he is defeated. Will he be allowed to and that assumes he keeps his seat.

Priti Patel and Swella Braverman are polishing up their “me for leader” campaign websites. Manoeuvres are taking over from campaigning at this stage of the proceedings, no Tory believes they have any chance of winning. The atmosphere behind the scenes must be toxic to the nth degree. It will take them a while to recover from this debacle.

Keith, now channelling his inner Steve Bruce, has asked voters to judge him on his record in five years time. Is nothing sacred these days.

As polls trickle in on Monday the Labour lead seems to be settling near the 15% mark, Reform are inching up with the Tories and LibDums not doing much at all. This a blatant attempt to influence the voting. Two more days for these shysters to get much closer to the real numbers so they can keep some kind of credibility or maybe, like Ricky Gervais, they just don’t care. Still no sign of Galloway’s boys anywhere. This may be one of the big mysteries of these polls when they are compared to reality.

The tramp has written to Islington North Labour candidate Praful Nargund requesting a public debate accusing him of ducking local hustings. The polls have the tramp coming second in his fiefdom. On Tuesday we discover that this Praful Nargund has his own private healthcare company that made almost £17 million profit in only 9 months. This has given the tramp a big boost, well in his own mind, and he is now banging on about a publicly run NHS and vote for him if you want to keep it that way.

Not much in the way of new polls being announced on this the 1st July. The few that are appearing have, to my mind, too high a number for the Tories and nowhere near enough for Reform. This has been the weirdest election campaign I can remember. LibLabCon and Reform campaigns consist of little but their leaders. Where are all the ministers and shadow ministers we would normally expect to see. Reform have an excuse because they don’t really know their candidates but for the rest, it’s like Mouthgate’s England team. Terrified of making a mistake so they keep quiet. The LibDems also have a partial excuse, Ed Davey their leader is little known and can anyone name another LibDem MP aside from that one with teeth like a horse.

The Reform candidate for Orkney and Shetland has called for Nicola Sturgeon to be shot. A bit extreme but there may be a bit of traction there. Even the SNP might wish she kept her head down even though that Swinney chap is making a right pig’s ear of his job.

On Tuesday it is reported that a senior Tory has complained bitterly about NikNak’s election campaign and the fact that he called the election so early against the advice of his own guru. We should have been fighting Reform rather than picking a fight with Keith he says. All wrong – they should not have been such a disaster having foisted the much detested hindu on us.

In a really odd twist Keith has said when he is PM he intends to finish at 6pm on a Friday to spend time with his family. Apparently it is a long standing tradition, his father-in-law comes round and they consume the first shabbat meal amongst other things, Mrs Starmer being of the faith. NikNak says he never finishes by 6pm and has now been accused of anti-semitism. The pedestrians never stop though to be fair the left is permanently looking for a stick to beat anyone with. By Tuesday evening the pedestrians are pushing the anti-semitism like mad, all piling in on the Tories. What a lot of brown stuff.

Evidence emerges of the reason for Ed Davey’s obsession with sewage. The majority of the LibDems’ most likely wins are in seats impacted by sewage spills. And there was me thinking this would be the preserve of the Mark Oaten wing of the party. I am given to understand it is called coprophilia in more polite circles. There I go again, circles and LibDems, it was an honest mistake guv.

Those puffins of the one handed variety may be cheered to hear there is a problem with AI generated fakeporn and lady candidates. Channel 4 reports among those affected are Crayons, Gillian Keegan, Penny Mordaunt, Priti Patel, Dehenna Davison and Stella Greasy. Must have been a very wide angle lens to fit the Patel beam on the screen. There must be some speculation as to whether the Crayons version is AI generated or real, whatever the case she will undoubtedly be blaming Tory Scum. Google may just be your friend.

Another plant breaks cover. The Reform candidate for West Ham and Beckton, Georgie David, has left Reform and defected to the Tories claiming that the vast majority of her fellow candidates are racist, misogynistic and bigoted. The same damascene light also appeared to the Erewash candidate a couple of days ago. I wonder why they are not defecting to Labour who in general are not as left wing as today’s Tories.

Final polls arriving in a steady stream now. In Brizzle Central Ms Debbonaire is going to get the bum’s rush with the Greenie bar stewards on 49% and Labour languishing on 40%. Redfield & Wilton are saying that nationally Labour will get 41%, the Tories 22% and Reform 16%. Ed Davey’s antics have not done much for the yellows who are on 10%. My gut feeling is that this wide of the mark, how on earth have the Tories gone up by 5% and Reform fallen by 2%. I call round objects and sincerely hope Redfield & Wilton are the ones with egg on their faces on Friday.

ElectionMapsUK are having a bit of a game. They have taken the Westminster polling intention for 16-17 year olds and plugged it into Electoral Calculus. The percentages are Lab 39, Ref 23, Grn 18, Lib 9, Tory 5. This would result in the following seat counts Labour 440, LibDem 69, Reform 68, SNP 36, Greenie bar stewards 14 and Plaid 4. The Tories are extinct. Unfortunately it is only a game but these people will be voting in the next election. The left are of course horrified at the Reform numbers but they are horrified by so much these days.

Fatty Fawkes is being sued by professional knob Dale Vince over claims the chubby one made about Vince and Hamas. Vince hopes to change Paul Staines’ theory that being in an offshore libel haven means he doesn’t have to worry about UK judges. M’learned friends will love that. Trebles all round several times over. Judging by the tweet comments, Fatty is not very popular – a sentiment often expressed here.

We have reached Wednesday morning and with a busy day looming I have to curtail my typing fingers and get this ready for publication. There will be a few images of polling data, with luck the boss will have recovered from the excesses of the bash.

Here are national poll figures, I really do hope they are exaggerating the Tory support and downplaying Reform’s numbers. The LibDems must be ecstatic about their undeserved numbers. We have only really seen Ed Davey doing slapstick most days, expect more of this next time – it seems to be a winning formula. The MIN, MAX etc. figures use data over the campaign, not just what you see.

In Scotland there was only one poll and Labour had a 5% lead over the Scotch Nazis.

Wales will be a Tory free zone again, the latest poll has them level with Reform.

Support for the IRA in Northern Ireland has dropped a bit, this may be associated with their support for the invasion south of the border where their popularity has plummeted.

We are spoiled for choice when it comes to the total number of seats predictions. As usual the numbers are all over the place but the Tories are always less than 100, Reform are to my mind understated and the Scotch Nazis are in for a drubbing.

My gut tells me that the latest polls are overstating Labour a bit, the Tories by a lot and understating Reform. The LibDems are still pulling the wool over people’s eyes by pretending to be a party of the centre. Mention of Galloway’s Gaza Party is missing, They have never featured in any of the polls. I feel sure they will win a few seats even though the pollsters are using their theory that by election victories are often wiped out in general elections. It appears most likely that Keith will get his stonking majority and we may be blessed to have Crayons as Deputy PM for a while. There will be one or two losses for Labour, we must savour each one.

Nigel’s prediction that this will be an election about immigration has apparently trumped Galloway’s prediction that this will be an election about Gaza. As any fool could tell George, bar the muzz most people are not obsessed with that part of Israel.

For our amusement the Portaloo moment will need a new name. Will it be Rees-Mogg, Sunak, Mordaunt or even Shapps. I like to hope that Pixie Cooper-Balls will get the bum’s rush and we could have a Pixie moment. Puffins will have their own preferences. I think Miguel Portaloo was anointed because of the sheer look of amazement on his face when he lost. This time, no Tory can feel safe and therefore may not be so surprised. We may have to choose one of the Labour fallers because they will be shocked. A Debbonaire moment anyone ?

My next article, probably Sunday, will mostly consist of me wiping egg from my face. My track record with predictions is only matched by our resident Son of God’s endeavours at the bookies. Some, perhaps all, of the pollsters will also be wearing egg. They can make their own excuses, for my part, as Ricky Gervais so eloquently put it, I just don’t care.

© well_chuffed 2024