Polling Predictions #15

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

With the news that the pesky injun is going to give us a vote on July 4th please bear in mind that I wrote most of the stuff below (up to the first image) before he announced it. My crystal ball is decidedly murky. My track record in predicting just about anything remains abysmal. I remain your not so obedient servant. I do remain however convinced that nobody will be deported to Rwanda before the 4th July.

Word arrives that the tramp, aka Jeremy Corbyn, could have his currently suspended Labour membership revoked after accepting a donation from anti-Labour group “We Deserve Better”. And there was me thinking it was the Tories who had the dodgy donors. Speaking of Tory donors it seems the blue side are rethinking (their description is “under review”) their plan to remove non-dom status after “representations” (i.e. the obscenely rich lobbying Jeremy Bonus Hole) from some of their donors. Westminster is truly a cesspit full of grifting shysters, no wonder Tice wants to join the club.

The “We Deserve Better” group, backed by among others the boy Jones, is supporting individual socialist candidates including the Greenie Carla Denny who is standing against Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire (NHRN, AWS has described it far better than I can hope to) in Bristol West. This has sometimes been touted as the second seat the Greenie bar stewards might just snatch.

Is there no end to the list of Tories standing down at the next election. The latest is Chris Heaton-Harris, Norn Iron Secretary, and that makes 65 now. This number may increase. We all must have seen him on TV but memorable is not a word you would use to describe him, I had no idea who he was.

On the economic front, Number 10 is hoping the BoE cuts interest rates in June so people “feel better off” before an autumn election. Considering the price rises we have been subjected to over the past few years this has to be clutching at straws, the latest spin is that prices are rising more slowly but they are still rising. My prediction, for what it’s worth, is that the Mr Micawber-ish hindu dwarf will cling on until the last possible moment before letting us vote him out. I feel a major consideration behind his thinking is so he can make me keep writing these articles for as long as possible.

Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, says of the Tory Party “They have given us two Prime Ministers, both of whom they dumped, and now the third is as unpopular as his party”. Flawless logic. This is a reaction to the news that the Prime Miniature wants to run a Presidential style campaign with himself at the front. The little brown chap should be sectioned. Sir John fails to mention that it was the WEF et al who were behind the defenestrations.

Mentioning the Prime Miniature brings to mind another U-turn, his graduate visa scheme where he wanted to stop the abuse of student visas has bitten the dust. The Cabinet didn’t like it and the main opposition came from old cast iron man CallMeDave. Another reason to detest Spoonface and our PM is now up there with Keith in the dithering stakes.

The tainted blood scandal affects both main parties as well as the sainted rNHS. Both leaders have now apologised but the Grauniad is concentrating on Maggie Thatcher’s involvement. Some things never change. Also on the ignore list is the gays protesting that it was homophobic to single out blood that often originated from uphill gardeners. Yet more things that never change. Of course as sure as night follows day, rNHS is being given a free ride with no blame attached.

Chair Sir Brian Langstaff: “This disaster was not an accident. The infections happened because those in authority – doctors, the blood services and successive govts- did not put patient safety first.” Money is far more important.

Now to the polls, after all that is what it says on the tin, and spectacular news from North Britain. We all saw that Humza really was Useless but his successor, John Swinney, is proving to be equally if not more useless. YouGov are now reporting Labour has a 10% lead in the Scottish polls and Election Maps are predicting the Scottish Nazi Party will be reduced to 10 seats, down from 48, with the Tories down from 6 to 3. This is what is known in the trade as a massive slap in the face. The SNP may well switch leader again but the theory was that Swinney was set up to be the fall guy and so he may be left to lead them to an embarrassing defeat for which he will take the blame. Labour go from their one seat to 39 through no fault of their own. Single issue parties seldom form successful governments, their single issue overrides all else. This also applies to the Greenie bar stewards. Legal Issues may mean others inclined to be leader of the SNP (even if again) are keeping a low profile.

From here on in, this is all from after the election announcement.

This is the seats prediction for Sco’lan and the total for the SNP just keeps going down.

These are the pollsters predictions of vote share, again the SNP is sinking.

Here are, respectively, the latest national polls and Nowcast’s number of seats prediction. The Tories just can’t seem to increase their numbers. If it carries on like this oblivion beckons. The little brown chap seems to be putting himself front and centre of the campaign. His wish for a Presidential style one seems to be backfiring badly as we all knew it would. He must be the only one in the country who does not realise how unpopular he is.

Ben Walker of Britain Elects tweets that more than half of the predicted Tory seat count of 100-150 will have majorities of 5% or less. This means the Tories are an error margin away from near total annihilation. That was a pleasant paragraph to write.

Jeremy Bonus Hole has been forced to deny he is standing down at the next election and all the time rumours abound of letters going in to the 1922 Committee Chairman who is standing down. Some say they will try to oust Roland Rat and stop the election. That will be pure farce. There is talk that a plot has been launched to remove the little brown chap; the Tories are furious about being deprived of an extra few months at the trough. If said plot is successful the blue team will be even more of a laughing stock than they are already. This apparently needs to happen by Thursday the 30th so there are a few days of mayhem to come.

The nonentity known as Richard Tice will stand in Boston & Skegness having previously failed in Hartlepool. FFS the Hartlepudlians even elected Mandelscum (didn’t they also elect a monkey once ?). Farage, for all his faults, knows a sh!tshow when he sees one and is keeping well clear. There is talk of him being appointed Trump’s Ambassador to the UK. Can a US Ambassador be a foreigner ? Just had a squint and an Ambassador is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, there are no other requirements. It would probably help enormously if he became a naturalised US citizen. Can’t see it myself.

The fragrant Isabel, Tice’s squeeze, claims the real reason the hindu dwarf was panicked into calling an election is because he thought Farage was going to stand, as did Tice. And so it did not come to pass and Reform’s hastily called press conference, allegedly to announce Farage being involved, was a car crash of epic proportions. There really isn’t enough popcorn. Meanwhile Nigel himself says he was about to announce he was standing but changed his mind and will only campaign rather than allow ballot boxes to go missing again. He claims his impending announcement got the pesky injun off the pot. He doesn’t really explain why he changed his mind though apart from from mentioning a 6 year plan (FFS not another effing plan).

Hot on the heels of news that the 76th Tory is stepping down we are told that Gove himself is jacking it in. Nobody is going to miss that devious snivelling little piece of brown stuff, even if it is a foot long. Surrey Heath is predicted to remain Tory, there will be a fight to get in that seat. And now a 78th is going, Andrea Leadsom is also throwing in the towel. I think she was every bit as useless as the rest of the Tories. Roland Rat must be wondering if it is worth the hassle.

Things are certainly warming up but some things never change such as Starmer displaying his complete lack of a personality.

© well_chuffed 2024