Polling Predictions #7

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

Hello puffins one and all. Today is Resurrection Day but not for the hindu dwarf. His prospects are looking as dim as ever. Try as he may, nothing improves his chances. Little wonder, the man is absolutely useless.

Yet again we do not have any constituency polls to whet our appetites so it is all about the national polls. They predominately show Labour in the mid forties and the Tories in the low twenties. According to YouGov Reform are now up to 16% but I take that with a pinch of salt unless Farage throws his hat in the ring. Speaking of the man he is, according to reports, either aiming to take over the rump of the Tory Party or angling to be the Ambassador to the US if the Donald wins. Perhaps both, he certainly knows how to wind both sides up.

When Keith wins the election, as he surely will, can you imagine the howls of outrage from the left if he should dare to appoint Nigel as Ambassador to the US. Although I think he may just be stirring muddy waters, Nigel claims he is on good terms with the Donald and his family. I reckon Labour would be more inclined to antagonise the Donald rather than please him.

The story about taking over what is left of the Tories after the GE is also puzzling, nay, baffling. The machine and the organisation may be attractive but any remaining MPs need to go. They are all closet LibDums or worse. Bloody Disraeli and his one nation stuff.

Seeing as my usual sources are running dry I cast my eye around for something else and up popped Election Maps UK. They are predicting something much more appealing, namely the Tories down to 111 seats. It is still 111 too many but a lot better than the 170 odd the others are talking about. I have included their predictions on the number of seats forecast. Their website lists their methodology thus –

The ‘Nowcast’ model is based on recent GB wide polling, as well as Scottish Welsh, and London only polling. Vote share estimates are calculated from the most recent published poll from British Polling Council members with polls weighted by recency as well as historic pollster accuracy. The methodology is based on Martin Baxter’s strong transitional model albeit with many tweaks. Limited levels of tactical voting are also incorporated into the model which become stronger where the challenger is clearer.

It is important to remember that the Nowcast indicates how a General Election could play out if an election were to be held today, not in a few months or years time. It is not a prediction for the next election, rather a snapshot of public opinion at the time of publishing.

We are now better informed but none the wiser.

In Wales they have Plaid Cymru at the dizzying heights of 4 MPs, the Tories with only one, the LibDums with one and Labour mopping up everything else. Many deceased and alive Welsh grandfathers will be rejoicing.

In Norn Iron the DUP lose three, one of these is picked up by the UUP, one goes to the Alliance and the IRA gets the third. This was before the news of Donaldson’s resignation, next week’s poll may be very interesting.

In Scotland the SNP lose 24 of their 48 seats and after the performance of Humza Useless I feel this is much more like it. The Tories are predicted to have 4 seats, down from 6. The LibDums are predicted to pick up two more seats and Labour make a happy return to their traditional place in Scottish society. Even the Hebrides, or is it the western isles, turns red. I just read that Sturgeon is more popular than Mr Useless, let us hope the revolting little man goes down in flames.

In England the sea of blue turns distinctly red and orange. Anyhow if you visit their website they have an interactive map where you can hover over any constituency and see their prediction. Sunak has performed admirably for his masters and the Tories are going extinct.

I know which predictions please me and they are the ones where the Tories are doing dreadfully. I hold out little hope for Reform. Farage may win if he stands, Lee Anderson may keep his seat but I can’t see them winning any other seats. Reform need to stick to their guns as the Party that will drain support from the useless Tories. I know it lets Keith in but it is a price worth paying.

YouGov are showing a slight weakening of Labour support and a minor increase in Tory support as well as bigging up Reform. I have never trusted any figures from this company and I suggest you don’t either. They are purely in the business of trying to influence opinion rather than reflecting it. They all do this to some extent but YouGov have to be the most blatant.

Now for the images. First up is the number of seats predictions. At the top you will see the Election Maps UK version.

Now we have the list of national polls

Finally here is the list by pollster so you can see their progression.

I wonder what Keith is going to do when he and his minions burst into the Treasury only to find the coffers far worse than empty. Will one of the Tories do a Liam Byrne and leave a note saying the cupboard is bare ?

I also fully expect the LibDums to beat their Proportional Representation drum again. Considering Reform may well poll several points higher than the yellows with only a seat or two to show for it that will be hypocrisy of the first order.

© well_chuffed 2024