Polling Predictions #19

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

So we start another week, only two more articles after this with maybe a summary after the election where I wipe the egg from my face. As ironic as it gets, Pro Palestinian protesters have taken over Labour’s battle bus. We wish them well. Reform, who now claim they will be able to win six seats while branding Labour the cafe latte party, have entered the tax bidding war. They want to get rid of IR35, lift the VAT threshold to £150k and lower Corporation Tax to 15%. Lower tax is good but how will they continue the massive government expenditure.

There are still signs that Labour and the Tories are slipping with the LibDems and Reform taking up the slack. A 20% or so lead is far too big to rein in by July 4th but Labour’s majority though substantial may not be quite as big as expected.

The new Survation MRP poll has Reform winning seven seats. They are

  • Ashfield (Lee Anderson retaining his seat)
  • Clacton (to Nigel Farage from Giles Watling)
  • Exmouth and Exeter East (New Boundaries)
  • Great Yarmouth (to Rupert Lowe from Brandon Lewis)
  • Mid Leicestershire (to Tom Smith from Edward Argar)
  • North West Norfolk (to Phil Walton from James Wild)
  • South Suffolk (to Bev England from James Cartlidge)

Will Tice get elected on the coat tails of Nigel Farage, polls have him with a good chance. Judging by Al Jnr’s images of his meals, Richard may need a strong stomach in Boston and Skegness. The poll gives Labour a 262 seat majority. Sounds massive but remember the Tories had an 80 seat majority and squandered it. Even Satan’s landslide in 1997 was less than what Keith is predicted to get. Later came news that the Tory Party Chairman is likely to lose to Reform in Basildon and Billericay.

The hindu dwarf will be remembered as the man who inherited an 80 seat majority and turned it into the biggest rout ever.

The Tories have effectively conceded defeat, they are now going to concentrate on depriving Labour of a super majority. The easiest way would be to stand down all their candidates. The dwarf insistis he will stay on even if the Tories lose the election. He assumes he will keep his seat and that is by no means certain. It is to be hoped the good burghers (there, an H for you pedants) of Richmond and North Allerton will express their, and our, displeasure at the urn.

The tramp is kicking off again. He is now saying that were he still leader of the Labour Party he could get just as big a vote as Keith is predicted to. It’s not so easy to agree with him even though NikNak is completely useless. Pol Pot could beat this shower of reprobates masquerading as a government.

The greenies certainly have their finger on the pulse. A massive internal row is brewing over the Cass Report, something to do with gender identity treatment in rNHS. The MGB-GT+ crowd have taken umbrage at their leaders’ statement on this Review and are threatening to withdraw support. Is there anything these eco loonies will not stick their proboscises into ?

Various polling aggregators have questioned Reform’s claims they are now the official opposition. I know this claim is based on one poll. But the aggregators take as many polls a possible and average them out. This method shows the Tories on over 20% and Reform around 14%. They may have a point but some of the other polls are highly questionable and in my view should be discounted.

One of my bugbears is how politicians use their manifestos as Holy Writ when it suits them and claim that because they won an election the people voted for every single thing in the worthless piece of paper. I say worthless because much of it will not get implemented, and in the fat Turk’s case, none of it. When a government loses an election it is usually because the people have had enough of them, not because they support the opposition. We are now in the situation where Keith is likely to get the biggest majority ever and the LibDems around the 50 to 60 seat level through no fault of their own. They have not performed so well that people are drawn to them, it is 14 years of rubbish from the Tories that is losing them this election and the red socialists and yellow communists need to be reminded of that. The other galling part is they will claim people voted for us. No they didn’t, they voted against the crap Tories.

NikNak now getting philosophical with his hinduism. He talks about dharma, doing your duty without worrying about the outcome. It’s only a short step to I was only following orders.

PR fever is increasing seeing as Labour are predicted to get the lion’s share of seats (pace Millwall). My prediction is that Labour will make all the right noises and do precisely nothing. They will see two terms staring at them and will not give them up without a fight. Why share the next one with somebody else unless Macmillan’s famous “events” turn up. Oops, did I make another prediction.

Hope not Soap who seem to have got the contract to vet Reform candidates have found historic support for the BNP from one of their candidates. He has now stepped down and will not be contesting Saffron Walden, Kemi Badenoch’s seat. It will be worth watching who profits from this type of revisionism, it may be a telling list. If you get the impression I don’t trust politicians you would be right.

Sundays and Monday mornings are bereft of election news these days. I think they gather in their bunkers trying to figure out where it is all going wrong.

On Monday Nigel launched the Reform contract, he refuses to call it a manifesto because they are all lies. Quite an array of ideas but as he says, they will not be able to implement them. The usual fact checkers are now busy debunking the plan most calling it Liz Truss on steroids. Where would they be without the hapless Liz. He also wants to scrap the license fee, that will incur Auntie’s wrath.

ElectionMapsUK is reporting that the gap between the Tories and Reform has closed from 12.5% to 5.5% since the start of this campaign. Tories 21% to Reform’s 15.5% now and that is with aggregated figures. It is certain the gap is closer than that. How both Labour and the Tories must hate him for upsetting their little cartel. Meanwhile they are still fact checking Reform’s contract and unsurprisingly they all find it wanting.

The little brown chap has had to stifle manynames because he said the Tories are unlikely to win. You are deep in the brown stuff when even your Defence Minister sees no chance of winning. The slippery Shapps has now modified his stance to claim that a vote for Reform will lead to a generation under Labour. This scares me almost as much as a generation under the Tories.

Sensational news, the Daily Star has endorsed Count Binface, self anointed leader of the Recyclons from planet Sigma IX, calling him the most sane politician in the UK. Bit of the OMRLP about him really, he wants Water Bosses to swim in the rivers, presumably those they pollute and National Service for former PMs. Perfectly acceptable though I would include former FMs as well so that CallMeDave gets a double whammy.

The fat Turk has placed his head over the parapet and said a few words in favour of voting Tory. I can’t see him getting too involved in this campaign for several reasons.

  • He won’t want them to do too well, he harbours hope of a comeback.
  • It might backfire.
  • Ed Davey has taken over the Turk’s buffoon/slapstick routine and it is working well.

Down on the farm the little brown chap tries to feed some sheep in Devon and they run away. He has also been advised to attack Keith even more. Not a winning strategy as far as I can see, mind you it was Nobsore giving him that advice.

Nigel is complaining that Reform’s vetting company has not been doing its job as twatter archeologists unearth ancient tweets from candidates in favour of far right fascist points of view. OK, fess up, which of you puffins was tweeting. The vetting company boss is a staunch Tory.

News arrived that NikNak had begged the fat Turk to campaign for the Tories (in other words, dig the little brown chap out of the brown stuff). Rather rich from one of the arch plotters against said Turk. Anyhow after a couple of half hearted messages from the dishevelled one he has now decided against campaigning after the Tories conceded they have lost the red wall seats. The logic being that where they are struggling, there are no Boris supporters, and there was me thinking they are struggling everywhere. It has all gone pear shaped on steroids. We have two more weeks of this sh!tshow to keep us amused.

The BoE has hit its inflation target of 2%. Hold on hold on. If they have a target it implies they can do something about it and if they can do something about it why didn’t they do it when the rate was much higher. They are all lying toerags.

On Wednesday it was the turn of the SNP and Galloway to launch their manifestos. The only part of anything that I caught was George, using his perennial impeccable logic, declaring that Labour and Tory are two cheeks of the same backside. One cheek is slightly worse than the other but he is correct, you couldn’t slip a fag paper between them. I did later hear that the SNP aspirations are further left than ever, much to the delight of the North Britons who seem to have a death wish.

One of the GB News reporters travelling on the Tory “battle bus” (how I hate that description) says that instead of concentrating on the marginals the Tories are going round seats that have tens or twenties of thousand majority. It looks like the private Tory polling is telling them what the polls are telling us. They are going to lose bigly. Both Liam Fox and Rees-Mogg are predicted to lose to Labour. Galloway on the other hand is saying that whenever he tours a constituency many tell him they are going to vote Reform. I know who I would prefer to believe. George may be a gifted charlatan but I think he tries to keep to what he sees as the truth.

Yet another day where very few Tories are putting their heads above the parapet. There was a glimpse of Jeremy Bonus Hole in his own constituency making outrageous claims, I won’t bore you with them. The man who is everywhere is NikNak. He is going to own this debacle big time. He wanted a presidential style campaign and he got it. The deluded little shrimp thinks everybody loves him, he is in for a rude awakening. Maybe he will blame it on the other Tories for not backing him. In his narcissistic eyes, it will not be because of him.

On the heels of the Tories squandering an 80 seat majority there are predictions of what will happen to Labour if they get anything over a 200 seat majority. Some are saying the various factions in Labour will start kicking lumps out of each other once the euphoria has died down and things will in turn go pear shaped for the left. Maybe by the end of the year it will start unravelling. We have a lot to look forward to. The corridors of Al-Jabeeba may not be completely clear of empty champagne bottles before the cracks start to appear. I also forgot to mention that plans may already be afoot to replace Keith as leader. Save some of your popcorn for the aftermath of the GE.

The word sensational is getting a bit of a hammering in this article but ….. Savanta, known to live up Labour’s backside, have a seat forecast of 516 for Labour and only 53 for the Tories with NikNak being the first serving Prime Minister to lose his seat (since Balfour in 1906). Buffoon Ed Davey is only 3 behind the Tories with the SNP on 8. I take this with a large pinch of salt. They give zero to Reform and the Greenies. Half an hour later YouGov provided a poll commissioned by Sly News. They have Labour on 425, The Tories on 108, The LibDums on 67 and the SNP on 20. The Greenies get 2, Plaid get 4 and Reform get 5. The YouGov version looks more reasonable to me but they don’t give anything to Galloway’s Workers Party and I am sure George will get seats.

I am also sure Savanta are trying to influence rather than reflect with their numbers even though the poll was commissioned by the Torygraph. At this rate the remaining Tory MPs will be fighting over a corpse when they turf NikNak out. Tom Tugendhat’s hat has been hurled into the ring already and several others are on manoeuvres even though they will probably lose their seat.

I am sick and ‘kin tired of this fully funded and costed BS the Parties keep putting out.  We are close to £3 trillion in debt and borrowing £140 billion a year to pay for the difference between tax receipts and government profligacy. We also pay £90 billion in interest payments on our National Debt. As far as I am concerned none of their promises/aspirations are fully funded until they stop borrowing money. Trouble is they are all at it so will not want to give the game away.

Sensational again !!!!! People Polling put Labour down to 35% and Reform on 24% and the poor old dwarf down to 15%. Hopefully this is the start of a trend. We still get Keith as PM with a massive majority but Reform could well be the official opposition. The few Tories who keep their seat will be begging to join Reform. Without wishing to sound like Dave Spart the totally predictable reaction from the usual suspects is deafening. Polls are rubbish, the only one that matters, outlier, needs a health check and so on ad infinitum. To rub salt into their wounds, another poll came out a bit later that puts Reform on 19%. The Reform momentum is under way and the pollsters will now have to start edging Reform’s numbers up to have any hope of being reasonably accurate by July 4th. By Friday I notice that those screaming the 24% is a pack of lies are very quiet about the other poll that has Reform on 19%. That’s two polls this week so far that have Reform leading the Tories.

We have reached Thursday and Michael “foot long” Gove claims there is still time to turn it all around. That ship has long sailed you silly boy. Galloway’s “This election will be all about Gaza” has fallen on stony ground but there was a person of tinge on TV obsessing over it. Rachel Reeves has said there is no job women can’t do. I would rephrase it as there are some jobs very few women could do and there are other jobs no woman would want to do.

One job a woman can easily do is to bet on the date of a general election. Laura Saunders did exactly that. The only fly in the ointment is that she is a Tory candidate and probably had insider knowledge, her husband being Tory Campaigns Director. It’s just Tories being Tories. Venal to the last. After I wrote that the news came that he had a flutter as well and is being investigated. Looks like Tory sleaze is alive and well. But hold on, according to Fatty Fawkes some Lobby Political Journalists have privately admitted betting using insider knowledge. The rot runs deep. I can think of a few hacks I would like to see castigated.

Jeremy Bonus Hole now admitting that Liz Truss’ mini budget didn’t cause sustained economic scaring and this is obviously why every other politician blames the dreadful state of our economy on Liz Truss. I think for once the Bonus Hole told the truth.

There was a leaders’ debate on Al-Jabeeba with la Bruce in control. Some paint was drying so I was unable to watch. Later reports were questionable but one thing did stick out. The little brown chap has totally lost the plot. This is proven by him discussing sanctions for those refusing National Service; such things as bank accounts, loans and driving licences were mentioned. Next the men in white coats will be sectioning him. This is obviously a WEF requirement so expect Keith to implement it shortly after his landslide victory.

Things are getting better in Islington North. The chair of the Labour Party there has quit because he was spotted campaigning for the tramp who is, as we all know, no longer a member of the Labour Party. The comrades take a dim view of that sort of thing.

For all the slapstick from Ed Davey the poll numbers for the LibDems do not seem to be moving much. The predicted sixty or so seats for the yellow ones are purely a result of Tory unpopularity and have little to do with whatever the yellows are promising. They really do take advantage of their reputation as the party of the middle when most seem of them to be communists. Anecdotal – one of my daughter’s ex colleagues was elected as a LibDem councillor and she is a self avowed commie.

At last we reach Friday. GB News have been focussing on Keith saying the tramp would have made a better PM than the fat Turk. We have had a chequered history of PMs since the Caledonian Cyclops. James Gordon Brown spent his life wanting to be PM and didn’t have a clue what to do when he got the job. We get to the fat Turk who also spent his life wanting the top job and was too damned lazy to do it when he reached Number 10. Now we have the hindu dwarf and he has wanted to be PM as long as he can remember and he is a disaster, everything he touches turns to brown stuff. The jury is out on whether the tramp would have made a fist of it or not.

The dwarf has failed to deny that Cabinet Ministers were placing bets. David TC Davies has said it wasn’t him, from the rest, silence.Tory sleaze never really went away.

In the 2nd week of the campaign, the Tory arm twisters have only secured about £300k in donations. Reform have pocketed about £750k but Labour got about £4.4 million. Lots of favours will be expected on July 5th.

James “not so” Cleverly pointing out the blindingly obvious. He finds no affection for Labour on the doorsteps, I could have told him that and saved him some shoe leather. Nope, it’s all down to the Tories cocking up bigly. The rule still applies, governments lose elections, the opposition don’t win them, they pick up the pieces by default. This time the gummint has cocked up so badly, there are some enormous pieces to pick up.

We reach the end of this week’s journey. It’s been a funny old week as Greavesie might have said. The national polls in general show a slight lowering of Labour’s percentages and a slight raise for Reform. We have 3 polls where Reform are ahead of the Tories and 2 where they are equal. Next week we may well be seeing Labour down in the high thirties and Reform up in the low twenties. The Tories and LibDems vary a bit but in general remain much the same.

As far as seat predictions go the Tories have from 53 to 155, Labour have 406 to 461 and the LibDems are mostly over 60. Reform are now starting to figure in the seat predictions but the numbers are still all over the place.

The SNP are still languishing north of the border and Wales looks forward to a future with no Tory MPs at all. Less than two weeks to go and can Reform make serious inroads into the Labour lead. The pollsters still do not even mention Galloway’s Workers Party. I am convinced they will win seats but have no idea how many.

To end on a really cheerful note, Labour are very worried about Crayons. She only has a 4,000 odd majority and is vulnerable because even her constituents don’t like her. Hence her begging the muzz to vote for her.

Very late news coming in. Nigel Farage was interviewed by Toenails (Nick “the Dick” Robinson if you are not sure). Asked about Ukraine, Nigel said that the West goaded Putin into invading Ukraine and he wants to stop the fighting. This is all too much for the usual suspects, almost everyone from what I can see. They are all piling in and calling him a traitor and/or Putin apologist and there was me thinking a traitor betrayed his own country. They are desperate to crucify Reform and revert to their cosy little cartel in Westminster.

There are also allegations from Mad Nads that former civil servant Sue Gray stitched up the fat Turk by initially saying Partygate was a storm in a teacup and then knifed him in the back when his guard was down. Remember Susan Gray – this harpie is now Keith’s Chief of Staff, she may well be the Alkie Campbell of the incoming Labour administration.

© well_chuffed 2024