The prologue:
I wrote this a couple of years ago. I have added one more reason why many could die (Democide) and updated the figures.
At the dawn of agriculture, about 8000 B.C., the population of the world was approximately 5 million. Over the 8,000-year period up to 1 A.D. it grew to 200 million (some estimate 300 million or even 600, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be), with a growth rate of under 0.05% per year.
A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in 30 years (1960), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).
During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.
In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.
Because of declining growth rates, it will now take over 200 years to double again, but that would mean 15 billion people on the planet, and that, surely, cannot be sustainable.
Let’s look at some figures about the world population
From Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Annual population growth
| Global annual population growth | |||||||
| Year | Population | Yearly growth | Density (pop/km2) |
Urban population | |||
| % | Number | Number | % | ||||
| 1951 | 2,584,034,261 | 1.88% | 47,603,112 | 17 | 775,067,697 | 30% | |
| 1952 | 2,630,861,562 | 1.81% | 46,827,301 | 18 | 799,282,533 | 30% | |
| 1953 | 2,677,608,960 | 1.78% | 46,747,398 | 18 | 824,289,989 | 31% | |
| 1954 | 2,724,846,741 | 1.76% | 47,237,781 | 18 | 850,179,106 | 31% | |
| 1955 | 2,773,019,936 | 1.77% | 48,173,195 | 19 | 877,008,842 | 32% | |
| 1956 | 2,822,443,282 | 1.78% | 49,423,346 | 19 | 904,685,164 | 32% | |
| 1957 | 2,873,306,090 | 1.80% | 50,862,808 | 19 | 933,113,168 | 32% | |
| 1958 | 2,925,686,705 | 1.82% | 52,380,615 | 20 | 962,537,113 | 33% | |
| 1959 | 2,979,576,185 | 1.84% | 53,889,480 | 20 | 992,820,546 | 33% | |
| 1960 | 3,034,949,748 | 1.86% | 55,373,563 | 20 | 1,023,845,517 | 34% | |
| 1961 | 3,091,843,507 | 1.87% | 56,893,759 | 21 | 1,055,435,648 | 34% | |
| 1962 | 3,150,420,795 | 1.89% | 58,577,288 | 21 | 1,088,376,703 | 35% | |
| 1963 | 3,211,001,009 | 1.92% | 60,580,214 | 22 | 1,122,561,940 | 35% | |
| 1964 | 3,273,978,338 | 1.96% | 62,977,329 | 22 | 1,157,813,355 | 35% | |
| 1965 | 3,339,583,597 | 2.00% | 65,605,259 | 22 | 1,188,469,224 | 36% | |
| 1966 | 3,407,922,630 | 2.05% | 68,339,033 | 23 | 1,219,993,032 | 36% | |
| 1967 | 3,478,769,962 | 2.08% | 70,847,332 | 23 | 1,252,566,565 | 36% | |
| 1968 | 3,551,599,127 | 2.09% | 72,829,165 | 24 | 1,285,933,432 | 36% | |
| 1969 | 3,625,680,627 | 2.09% | 74,081,500 | 24 | 1,319,833,474 | 36% | |
| 1970 | 3,700,437,046 | 2.06% | 74,756,419 | 25 | 1,354,215,496 | 37% | |
| 1971 | 3,775,759,617 | 2.04% | 75,322,571 | 25 | 1,388,834,099 | 37% | |
| 1972 | 3,851,650,245 | 2.01% | 75,890,628 | 26 | 1,424,734,781 | 37% | |
| 1973 | 3,927,780,238 | 1.98% | 76,129,993 | 26 | 1,462,178,370 | 37% | |
| 1974 | 4,003,794,172 | 1.94% | 76,013,934 | 27 | 1,501,134,655 | 37% | |
| 1975 | 4,079,480,606 | 1.89% | 75,686,434 | 27 | 1,538,624,994 | 38% | |
| 1976 | 4,154,666,864 | 1.84% | 75,186,258 | 28 | 1,577,376,141 | 38% | |
| 1977 | 4,229,506,060 | 1.80% | 74,839,196 | 28 | 1,616,419,308 | 38% | |
| 1978 | 4,304,533,501 | 1.77% | 75,027,441 | 29 | 1,659,306,117 | 39% | |
| 1979 | 4,380,506,100 | 1.76% | 75,972,599 | 29 | 1,706,021,638 | 39% | |
| 1980 | 4,458,003,514 | 1.77% | 77,497,414 | 30 | 1,754,201,029 | 39% | |
| 1981 | 4,536,996,762 | 1.77% | 78,993,248 | 30 | 1,804,215,203 | 40% | |
| 1982 | 4,617,386,542 | 1.77% | 80,389,780 | 31 | 1,854,134,229 | 40% | |
| 1983 | 4,699,569,304 | 1.78% | 82,182,762 | 32 | 1,903,822,436 | 41% | |
| 1984 | 4,784,011,621 | 1.80% | 84,442,317 | 32 | 1,955,106,433 | 41% | |
| 1985 | 4,870,921,740 | 1.82% | 86,910,119 | 33 | 2,007,939,063 | 41% | |
| 1986 | 4,960,567,912 | 1.84% | 89,646,172 | 33 | 2,062,604,394 | 42% | |
| 1987 | 5,052,522,147 | 1.85% | 91,954,235 | 34 | 2,118,882,551 | 42% | |
| 1988 | 5,145,426,008 | 1.84% | 92,903,861 | 35 | 2,176,126,537 | 42% | |
| 1989 | 5,237,441,558 | 1.79% | 92,015,550 | 35 | 2,233,140,502 | 43% | |
| 1990 | 5,327,231,061 | 1.71% | 89,789,503 | 36 | 2,290,228,096 | 43% | |
| 1991 | 5,414,289,444 | 1.63% | 87,058,383 | 36 | 2,347,462,336 | 43% | |
| 1992 | 5,498,919,809 | 1.56% | 84,630,365 | 37 | 2,404,337,297 | 44% | |
| 1993 | 5,581,597,546 | 1.50% | 82,677,737 | 37 | 2,461,223,528 | 44% | |
| 1994 | 5,663,150,427 | 1.46% | 81,552,881 | 38 | 2,518,254,111 | 44% | |
| 1995 | 5,744,212,979 | 1.43% | 81,062,552 | 39 | 2,575,505,235 | 45% | |
| 1996 | 5,824,891,951 | 1.40% | 80,678,972 | 39 | 2,632,941,583 | 45% | |
| 1997 | 5,905,045,788 | 1.38% | 80,153,837 | 40 | 2,690,813,541 | 46% | |
| 1998 | 5,984,793,942 | 1.35% | 79,748,154 | 40 | 2,749,213,598 | 46% | |
| 1999 | 6,064,239,055 | 1.33% | 79,445,113 | 41 | 2,808,231,655 | 46% | |
| 2000 | 6,143,494,000 | 1.31% | 79,255,000 | 41 | 2,868,308,000 | 46% | |
| 2001 | 6,222,627,000 | 1.29% | 79,133,000 | 42 | 2,933,079,000 | 47% | |
| 2002 | 6,301,773,000 | 1.27% | 79,147,000 | 42 | 3,001,808,000 | 47% | |
| 2003 | 6,381,185,000 | 1.26% | 79,412,000 | 43 | 3,071,744,000 | 48% | |
| 2004 | 6,461,159,000 | 1.25% | 79,974,000 | 43 | 3,143,045,000 | 48% | |
| 2005 | 6,541,907,000 | 1.25% | 80,748,000 | 44 | 3,215,906,000 | 49% | |
| 2006 | 6,623,518,000 | 1.25% | 81,611,000 | 44 | 3,289,446,000 | 50% | |
| 2007 | 6,705,947,000 | 1.24% | 82,429,000 | 45 | 3,363,610,000 | 50% | |
| 2008 | 6,789,089,000 | 1.24% | 83,142,000 | 46 | 3,439,719,000 | 50% | |
| 2009 | 6,872,767,000 | 1.23% | 83,678,000 | 47 | 3,516,830,000 | 51% | |
| 2010 | 6,956,824,000 | 1.22% | 84,057,000 | 47 | 3,594,868,000 | 51% | |
| 2011 | 7,041,194,000 | 1.21% | 84,371,000 | 47 | 3,671,424,000 | 52% | |
| 2012 | 7,125,828,000 | 1.20% | 84,634,000 | 48 | 3,747,843,000 | 52% | |
| 2013 | 7,210,582,000 | 1.19% | 84,754,000 | 48 | 3,824,990,000 | 53% | |
| 2014 | 7,295,291,000 | 1.17% | 84,709,000 | 49 | 3,902,832,000 | 53% | |
| 2015 | 7,379,797,000 | 1.16% | 84,506,000 | 50 | 3,981,498,000 | 54% | |
| 2016 | 7,464,022,000 | 1.14% | 84,225,000 | 50 | 4,060,653,000 | 54% | |
| 2017 | 7,547,859,000 | 1.12% | 83,837,000 | 51 | 4,140,189,000 | 55% | |
| 2018 | 7,631,091,000 | 1.10% | 83,232,000 | 51 | 4,219,817,000 | 55% | |
| 2019 | 7,713,468,000 | 1.08% | 82,377,000 | 52 | 4,299,439,000 | 56% | |
| 2020 | 7,795,000,000 | 1.05% | 81,331,000 | 52 | 4,378,900,000 | 56%
|
|
Population growth by region
Main article: Population growth
Further information: Total fertility rate and Birth rate
The table below shows historical and predicted regional population figures in millions. The availability of historical population figures varies by region.
| World historical and predicted populations (in millions) | ||||||||||||||
| Region | 1500 | 1600 | 1700 | 1750 | 1800 | 1850 | 1900 | 1950 | 1999 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2050 | 2150 |
| World | 585 | 660 | 710 | 791 | 978 | 1,262 | 1,650 | 2,521 | 6,008 | 6,707 | 6,896 | 7,052 | 9,725 | 9,746 |
| Africa | 86 | 114 | 106 | 106 | 107 | 111 | 133 | 221 | 783 | 973 | 1,022 | 1,052 | 2,478 | 2,308 |
| Asia | 282 | 350 | 411 | 502 | 635 | 809 | 947 | 1,402 | 3,700 | 4,054 | 4,164 | 4,250 | 5,267 | 5,561 |
| Europe | 168 | 170 | 178 | 190 | 203 | 276 | 408 | 547 | 675 | 732 | 738 | 740 | 734 | 517 |
| Latin America] | 40 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 38 | 74 | 167 | 508 | 577 | 590 | 603 | 784 | 912 |
| Northern America | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 82 | 172 | 312 | 337 | 345 | 351 | 433 | 398 |
| Oceania | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 30 | 34 | 37 | 38 | 57 | 51
|
Six of the Earth’s seven continents are permanently inhabited on a large scale. Asia is the most populous continent, with its 4.64 billion inhabitants accounting for 60% of the world population. The world’s two most populated countries, China and India, together constitute about 36% of the world’s population. Africa is the second most populated continent, with around 1.34 billion people, or 17% of the world’s population. Europe’s 747 million people make up 10% of the world’s population as of 2020, while the Latin American and Caribbean regions are home to around 653 million (8%). North America, primarily consisting of the United States and Canada, has a population of around 368 million (5%), and Oceania, the least populated region, has about 42 million inhabitants (0.5%). Antarctica only has a very small, fluctuating population of about 1200 people based mainly in polar science stations.
Today then we have 7.6 billion people on the planet. Can we feed and water them? The answer is a no-brainer, we cannot. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) estimates that about 815 million people of the 7.6 billion people in the world, or 10.7%, were suffering from chronic undernourishment in 2016. Almost all the hungry people live in lower-middle-income countries. There are 11 million people undernourished in developed countries. (https://www.worldhunger.org/world-hunger-and-poverty-facts-and-statistics/)
Poverty is the principal cause of hunger. The causes of poverty include lack of resources, unequal income distribution in the world and within specific countries, conflict, and hunger itself. As of 2013, when the most recent comprehensive data on global poverty was collected, about 767 million people are living below the international poverty line of less than $1.90 per person per day (The World Bank, 2016). This was a decrease of about 1 billion people below the poverty line from 1990 (The World Bank, 2016). However, although the number of people living in extreme poverty globally has been declining, in lower-middle-income regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa, the number is actually growing.
Hunger is also a cause of poverty, and thus of hunger, in a cyclical relationship. By causing poor health, small body size, low levels of energy and reductions in mental functioning, hunger can lead to even greater poverty by reducing people’s ability to work and learn, thus leading to even greater hunger.
Conflict. More than half (489 million) of the 815 million hungry people in the world live in countries affected by conflict. Ranging from non-state and state-based violence to one-sided violence, some of the conflicts that result in internal or international displacement have occurred in Syria, Yemen, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Myanmar, among many other countries throughout the world. In addition, most of the 19 countries in complex, prolonged conflict are located in Africa.
It seems to me that 6 billion people at the most, on our planet is all we can cater for. Here though is the forecast for population growth for the rest of this century:
| UN 2019 estimates and medium variant projections (in millions) | |||||||
| Year | World | Asia | Africa | Europe | Latin America/Caribbean | Northern America | Oceania |
| 2000 | 6,144 | 3,741 (60.9%) | 811 (13.2%) | 726 (11.8%) | 522 (8.5%) | 312 (5.1%) | 31 (0.5%) |
| 2005 | 6,542 | 3,978 (60.8%) | 916 (14.0%) | 729 (11.2%) | 558 (8.5%) | 327 (5.0%) | 34 (0.5%) |
| 2010 | 6,957 | 4,210 (60.5%) | 1,039 (14.9%) | 736 (10.6%) | 591 (8.5%) | 343 (4.9%) | 37 (0.5%) |
| 2015 | 7,380 | 4,434 (60.1%) | 1,182 (16.0%) | 743 (10.1%) | 624 (8.5%) | 357 (4.8%) | 40 (0.5%) |
| 2020 | 7,795 | 4,641 (59.5%) | 1,341 (17.2%) | 748 (9.6%) | 654 (8.4%) | 369 (4.7%) | 43 (0.6%) |
| 2025 | 8,184 | 4,823 (58.9%) | 1,509 (18.4%) | 746 (9.1%) | 682 (8.3%) | 380 (4.6%) | 45 (0.6%) |
| 2030 | 8,549 | 4,974 (58.2%) | 1,688 (19.8%) | 741 (8.7%) | 706 (8.3%) | 391 (4.6%) | 48 (0.6%) |
| 2035 | 8,888 | 5,096 (57.3%) | 1,878 (21.1%) | 735 (8.3%) | 726 (8.2%) | 401 (4.5%) | 50 (0.6%) |
| 2040 | 9,199 | 5,189 (56.4%) | 2,077 (22.6%) | 728 (7.9%) | 742 (8.1%) | 410 (4.5%) | 53 (0.6%) |
| 2045 | 9,482 | 5,253 (55.4%) | 2,282 (24.1%) | 720 (7.6%) | 754 (8.0%) | 418 (4.4%) | 55 (0.6%) |
| 2050 | 9,735 | 5,290 (54.3%) | 2,489 (25.6%) | 711 (7.3%) | 762 (7.8%) | 425 (4.4%) | 57 (0.6%) |
| 2055 | 9,958 | 5,302 (53.2%) | 2,698 (27.1%) | 700 (7.0%) | 767 (7.7%) | 432 (4.3%) | 60 (0.6%) |
| 2060 | 10,152 | 5,289 (52.1%) | 2,905 (28.6%) | 689 (6.8%) | 768 (7.6%) | 439 (4.3%) | 62 (0.6%) |
| 2065 | 10,318 | 5,256 (51.0%) | 3,109 (30.1%) | 677 (6.6%) | 765 (7.4%) | 447 (4.3%) | 64 (0.6%) |
| 2070 | 10,459 | 5,207 (49.8%) | 3,308 (31.6%) | 667 (6.4%) | 759 (7.3%) | 454 (4.3%) | 66 (0.6%) |
| 2075 | 10,577 | 5,143 (48.6%) | 3,499 (33.1%) | 657 (6.2%) | 750 (7.1%) | 461 (4.4%) | 67 (0.6%) |
| 2080 | 10,674 | 5,068 (47.5%) | 3,681 (34.5%) | 650 (6.1%) | 739 (6.9%) | 468 (4.4%) | 69 (0.7%) |
| 2085 | 10,750 | 4,987 (46.4%) | 3,851 (35.8%) | 643 (6.0%) | 726 (6.8%) | 474 (4.4%) | 71 (0.7%) |
| 2090 | 10,810 | 4,901 (45.3%) | 4,008 (37.1%) | 638 (5.9%) | 711 (6.6%) | 479 (4.4%) | 72 (0.7%) |
| 2095 | 10,852 | 4,812 (44.3%) | 4,152 (38.3%) | 634 (5.8%) | 696 (6.4%) | 485 (4.5%) | 74 (0.7%) |
| 2100 | 10,875 | 4,719 (43.4%) | 4,280 (39.4%) | 630 (5.8%) | 680 (6.3%) | 491 (4.5%) | 75 (0.7%) |
So, why do we keep on increasing our population, despite knowing that we cannot feed and water them? I have done much research and it appears these are the key factors:
The answer is the theory of ‘Natural Selection’:
Now this natural selection determines the equilibrium of any species on this planet. Any species which has an ‘inherent advantage’ will have relative more population
Our ancestors started using tools by combining sticks and stones, this gave them an advantage over other species to hunt. It took many calories to tear the meat of animals, and by discovering ‘fire’, the food become soft and tasty. This led to less burning of calories, another advantage. With the rise of the wheel, more energy was spared and a lot more leisure time led to thinking.
The greatest advantage natural selection gave us was ‘standing up-straight’. This happened because man couldn’t see his prey in tall grasses on 4 limbs. Our 2 hands could be used for many other purposes. As a result, associations came to be formed, males combined to catch the prey and females to cook, not to mention common dens and houses made of twigs and branches helped. The greatest turning point was the invention of agriculture. Before agriculture a lot of energy was wasted to catch scarce prey, but agriculture changed everything. Now 10 more people could be fed with 1/10th of land means a rise of factor of 100.
By 1 BC, ‘Philosophy and Logic’ was developed all thanks to Greeks. Weird activities and religion were sidelined. This led to a giant leap forward in rational thinking of man. With the rise of the arts, writing, cannons, guns and modern industrial revolution, the ‘Natural Selection’ theory favoured us greatly.
The rise of medicine also led to great rise of population. Naturally death rates declined. As the comfort zone kept rising the population rose every time.
Why is Growth Slowing?
Giving birth to 5 to 7 children per woman used to be the norm all over the place. Many died young, many more in wars, from hunger or from epidemics.
With more food available, fewer are starving, plus better medical treatments, so fewer people dying at young age.
After a while, people started realising that all these children need to be fed for a long time because schooling them becomes a necessity. Also, these children tend not to provide old age security for the parents anymore, and so the Europeans started having less and less children. Then Americans. Then Asians. Right now, we are left with just a few places where more than three children are a norm – mainly in Africa and parts of the Middle East. Most States are converging towards simple reproduction rate of (slightly above) two children per woman. Having said that, followers of Islam still tend to have more children than average no matter where they are located, though I have seen reports of this slowing down to a rate of 3.1.
The crucial number is the average birth-rate globally
Around 2.1 is considered a rate that would yield a stable population. If the average was 3 and remained so permanently, the population would pretty quickly be astronomical. 3 doesn’t seem like a lot, but that kind of mathematical progression adds up much faster than most people realise.
Right now, I believe we are somewhere between 2.5 and 3. Most growth will be in Africa, South Asia and all Muslim countries. This also means that any country in the world importing Muslims will also find their growth rate becoming unsustainably higher, and with so few economically active (i.e., paying taxes) those countries will become poorer as well, which leads to hunger and war.
Just watch the world population clock. It is scary to see that every new day there are 200.000 more people here then the day before.
You can check out how big the population was in the year of your birth. Check out per country and see the future here: World Population Clock: 7.6 Billion People (2018)
So, we now know why we have more and more people on the planet, and a good estimate for the future quantity. Scared? We should be.
How can we control this growth?
A country can control growth if it has the political will. China for example had the 1 child policy only, but now has 2, though as a country it is still growing massively. A country could, for example stop payment benefits to husbands with more than one wife, and for a maximum of one or two children only, making it economically unviable to breed more. This sort of “voluntary” thing would be unlikely in my view to happen on a continental or global scale. I believe that paying people to breed is exceptionally stupid unless after a period of great loss of population.
As we will most likely not try and control over-breeding, this leaves death and war to control it:
Death by Natural Disaster
In this next century, we could see some major Earth-shattering disasters, which could include:
Death by Volcanoes – Over the past 13.5 million years, 19 giant eruptions have each spewed more than 1,000 cubic km of rock which is enough to coat an entire continent in a few centimetres of ash and push the planet into a nuclear winter. The most recent eruption: Toba in Indonesia 74,000 years ago may have been the cause of last ice age and cutting human population. There would be a 1% chance of a super-eruption in the next 460-7,200 years.
Death by Fungus – Fungi have caused 70% of the recorded global and regional extinctions, and now threaten amphibians, bats and bees. The Irish Potato Famine was caused by a fungus.
Death by solar flare – The sun occasionally launches outsize solar flares, which can fry electricity grids. A major flare could kill hundreds of millions of people and set us back 150 years.
Death by Asteroid – The possibility of large comet or asteroid strike. 65 million years ago, an asteroid 10 km wide hit Earth and triggered the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. 2km wide rocks hit the planet 1-2 times every million years.
Death by Water – The main threat is tsunamis, one of the more recent examples is the Boxing Day tsunami of 2004 which killed up to 280,000 people.
Death by Non-Natural Disaster
Democide
Definition – Democide: Democide is the murder of any person or people by their government, including genocide, politicide and mass murder. Democide is not necessarily the elimination of entire cultural groups but rather groups within the country that the government feels need to be eradicated for political reasons and due to claimed future threats.
Never thought I would add this, but with this gene therapy almost being forced and many things being made mandatory to have it, then this too comes into play. Much has been said and written about this vaccine for a form of flu, that is not a vaccine, as admitted by governments. Make your own mind up based on the information you see and hear, but bear in mind there is no long term data. The first so called vaccination was given on the 8th December 2020 (BBC report). So, as I write this in August 2021, there is about 8 months of data on people who have received this jab. This alone gives me a major cause for concern and is my reason for refusing this jab. I am not “anti-vax”, I am ex forces and have probably had more actual vaccines than most. I am “anti-sticking some unknown substance in my body when there are no long-term studies, and you can still catch it and pass it on” type of person. So, whilst I may well be a tin-foil hat wearer and suspect this so-called vaccine is democide, at the end of the day, if I am wrong (and that is fine) I can take my tin-foil hat off, I would not be able to get un-vaccinated though.
Whether any or all the above happens, there is always the possibility of a really big world-wide war, probably based initially between countries and then at a continental level, either because one side thinks their god is better than someone else’s or because one side wants more land to grow food. That should reduce the population significantly, it then becomes a question of whether the land is still suitable to grow food and hold clean water.
Something will happen, just not sure what, or when, as our planet is basically full to brimming already.
Mind how you go.
Featured image: “City 2 Surf. The mob!” by shotmeshotyou is licensed under CC BY 2.0
© Phil the ex test manager 2021
