Polling Predictions #16

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

Only 5 more articles to go ! We are still in the realms of “We’re rubbish but the other side are even worse”. It is disgraceful. The Tories have presided over a period when the only explanation for many of their actions is that they want us to be poorer. Just a couple of examples are energy prices and insurance costs and that is without mentioning big pharma. Is there something in Tory DNA that likes to see us, the plebs, struggling to survive while the fat cats get significantly fatter. There must have been some very lucrative bungs and perhaps this is why so many are stepping down. Now it is the turn of Keith’s merry men to jump on the gravy train. This election looks more and more like an orderly transfer of power than we the voters having any choice in the matter. Continuity WEF rules.

The National Service fiasco gives every sign of being made up on the hoof much like the lockdown was. The claim that refusal to serve would incur no penalty is now dust because there is now a threat of jail. This at a time when our jails are bursting. Cleverly claimed it would be paid for by clamping down on that old chestnut tax avoidance when it now seems they don’t have a clue where the money is coming from. Wait for the “civil service efficiencies” as the next source of money, they always throw that one in when stuck for a funding source. The final nail in its coffin will be the back of the sofa jibe.

It is impossible for me to describe how angry I am with this nonsense. Every government for decades now has treated our armed forces with contempt. They have not been used to defend this country and its interests since the Falklands War over 40 years ago. Even during WW1 when they were little more than cannon fodder there were several months of hard training, these days it must take years to produce a reasonably proficient soldier. NikNak’s plan (I shudder at calling it that) hasn’t a chance of producing a useful soldier in the timescale he is suggesting and do we even have enough soldiers to train up those poor unfortunates subjected to National Service. Yet again they are making it up as they stumble along.

The latest wheeze is you won’t be able to get a public sector job if you don’t do your National Service. The sooner the dwarf clears off to California the better for all concerned. The shyster who sometimes calls himself Grant Shapps insists that National Service will “toughen up” our teenagers. Ye Gods, we are completely scuppered.

In Islington North, the seat of the tramp, the luvvies are furious that their beloved Jezza is not their candidate describing the selection process as egregiously undemocratic. Egregious seems to be used ever more frequently these days days, the septics are especially fond of it. The chosen candidate is Praful Nargund who as I said before sounds like a character from Lord of the Rings, an orc perchance. He is of course a Labour councillor in Islington whose name has a remarkably injun ring to it. He claims to come from “an NHS family” whatever that means.

The mud slinging starts. The Prime Miniature was missing in action during Saturday, various reasons were mentioned. I like the one where he is depressed by his own campaign. Now Keith has gone missing on Sunday, some Tories are claiming this is due to his age. Deep in the gutter already.

No campaign would be complete without battle buses, they do like their military metaphors (or is it analogies) these useless politicians. There is news that the LibDum battle bus is on the road, I guess it is more like a mobile tea urn when the troops get thirsty. Their new plan is to put “stealth taxes” on pensioners in a bid to steal Tory seats. I’d like several pints of whatever they are drinking; it must be heap powerful.

Labour, the party of high taxes if there ever was one, insist they will not increase income tax or VAT. That means all the other taxes will increase and they may find a few new ones. The ghost of James Gordon Brown, who never saw a tax he didn’t like, still strides the corridors of power.

Nigel Farage comes under fire again for saying that muslims do not share British values. Talk about being pilloried for stating the obvious. Their values are firmly set down in the Koran and they are not British values. More head in the sand thinking from the usual suspects especially Trevor Phillips who had that exact same opinion but a few years ago and seems to have recanted.

One of the weirder things I have heard is the question about who will Rupert Murdoch’s titles support. This sounds very much like the fast sinking printed press still thinking it is important. For those in any doubt, it isn’t. The big mystery is why they still print newspapers, we no longer wrap our fish and chips in them and the days of torn squares of the stuff on a hook in the bog are long gone though I can just remember them.

We need to get used to change. Potato Head Ed Davey went up to Scotchland and said it is time for change. Keith stood at a lectern with the word change as bold as brass behind him. One assumes the hindu dwarf doesn’t want change but the way he is carrying on that is what we can expect. I have a vague recollection that Obummer was big on change, not that it made any difference.

Lucy Allan, Tory MP for Telford, has been expelled from the party for tweeting support for the Reform candidate in what was her own seat, she had already decided to stand down. It is getting very bizarre and she is now talking to Reform about standing for them.

CCHQ has blamed its own MPs for the poor start to the election campaign. The dwarf has now accepted responsibility himself, another of “those responsible will be punished” moments. We are back to the good old days of the Caledonian Cyclops. 

Steve Baker has cleared off on his holidays to Greece, allegedly with the dwarf’s blessing. This must be the first time in electoral history a Minister has gone this AWOL during a general election campaign. What a sh!tshow.

The investigation into the sainted Diane Abbot finished five months ago. The conclusion of those in the know is that she will remain suspended and so will not be able to stand in Hackney North for Labour. She complains she is worn out, presumably from breathing and/or eating because she does little else. Will she stand as an independent like former lover Jezza ? STOP PRESS. The FFRC has now had the whip restored but will not be allowed to stand. Keith says this is so she can leave Parliament as a Labour MP with dignity. What a load of old tosh. This story has now taken over as big issue #1 for Labour. Keith hasn’t got a clue either. If Alkie Campbell was running the show this would never have happened. More STOP PRESS, she will now be allowed to stand, Crayons has forced Keith’s hand (shudder !).

It’s only Tuesday and already the news is coming thick and fast. Flabbott will definitely not be allowed to stand as a Labour candidate, Crayons, fresh from being cleared of any wrongdoing, is begging the highly disinterested muzz to vote for her and a real outlier poll shows the Labour lead at only 12%. Galloway must be lining someone up for Crayons’ seat (I know, filth). All the other polls show a Labour lead over 20%.

The well known otter’s pocket Ma Dale has quit his LBC radio show to stand as Tory candidate in hideously white (97.5% white is claimed) Tunbridge Wells. The Tories are saved, or maybe not. He takes over from the nonentity Greg Clark who is standing down. Having insulted his prospective voters, Dale has now stood down. Wonder if LBC will be keen to have him back.

Lloyd Russell-Moyle has been suspended by Labour and can’t stand as a candidate because of a complaint about something eight years ago. Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven will have to conjure up a new Labour candidate and they have, Chris Ward is the lucky man.

All these funded and unfunded pledges are complete BS. Keith says he is going to fund something from clamping down on Tax avoidance but I am sure somebody else has already spent that money and the Tories are little different. After much goading from the Tories Keith has now stated he will not raise VAT having been shall we say undecided previously.

Farage’s “peace” offer to the Tories is just yet more grifting. He’s trying to pre-empt Tice getting all the loot.

Wes Streeting, standing in Ilford North, has managed to get his “husband”, Joe Dancey slotted in as the Labour candidate for Stockton West. Nepotism rules.

Another Tory defection is Mark Logan, who looks like he is of the dork persuasion, he has crossed over to Labour. He is naturally referred to as a former Tory MP since all MPs are now former MPs. He is about to apply for Labour membership where he will remain on the dork wing thereof. The remaining Tories are pretty scathing about him. I bet he is looking for a seat to represent.

Conservative Minister Anthony Browne, no me neither, has said there will be a 13% cut in public spending if the Tories win the election. Desperate stuff, they have had 14 years to do that and have not reduced it at all. I call BS big time.

Now to the numbers. We have a couple of polls in Scotland and Labour are ahead of the SNP but only by a few points.

As far as the seats in Scotland go, the SNP are down to the teens though predictions vary. 

There is one poll I have found from Norn Iron. The TUV is the Traditional Unionist Voice. There are now 3 Unionist parties who are fighting each other. The Unionist vote adds up to 41%, the Nationalist vote comes to 51%. Looks like demographics win again.

There are lots of national polls, the consensus seems to be an over 20% lead for Keith. I don’t think the row about Miss Diane’s candidacy will affect Labour that much. The hindu dwarf’s campaign has fallen on stony ground whatever he says to the contrary.

Now for the national seat predictions. There is an MRP poll from Electoral Calculus that says, allowing for tactical voting, the Tories will be reduced to 66 seats, only marginally in front of the LibDums and their 59 seats. We are almost in “LibDum as the official opposition” territory. What a mess the little brown chap has made of the Tories and I thank him for it. Also of note is the UUP in Norn Iron having no seats. I find it hard to believe these numbers but wouldn’t it be sensational if true.

In summary, the Tories are desperate and Labour are so enamoured with over 450 seats they think they can do whatever they like. Keith needs a Consigliere bigly. Did I forget the LibDems ? That is probably the best place for them.

Finally – Labour have selected candidates for all the seats they are contesting. The Tories are still about 200 short and they have about a week to get it done. Expect them to pick a few wrong ‘uns as they rush to select candidates.

© well_chuffed 2024