Polling Predictions #3

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

Here we are with the 3rd instalment concerning UK Polling Report’s tweets. As has been mentioned more than once in the comments that nobody reads, beware of polls. I had hoped there would have been some movement after a week of ructions, cock-ups and bad tempered behaviour in the political world. Looks like I was wrong but perhaps we shall see some changes next week.

As far as the number of seat predictions go I have noticed that there are 4 types of analysis on the site. In no particular order they are

  • Uniform National Swing
  • Minimum Vote Share
  • Incumbent Weighted
  • UKPR Default

Not being exactly sure what these terms really mean I plumped for the Uniform National Swing version. With the level of hatred for politicians in general and the Tories in particular I thought incumbent weighted to be most unworthy of consideration especially since it decides the Tories get even more seats than they deserve. I changed my spreadsheet to only record when there are changes. It can go for a week with little change.

I am also dubious about the SNP getting 48 of the 57 seats in Scotland. Most of what I see in the tweets is either SNP hold or the odd SNP taking a Tory seat. How crap do you have to be for Humza Useless’s crowd to beat you. I think Labour may take a few SNP seats, surely even the most die-hard nationalist must have doubts about Mr Useless.

There are 2 weeks data in this week’s digest so an extra screenshot or two. The lists of repeat constituencies has been much reduced. Big changes are what is interesting and poor old Dominic Raab and Douglas Ross are not appealing at all to their voters.

Poor old Johnny Mercer has gone from Survivor to Fallen; though there is only about a 1% difference in the figures it was enough to flip him. It is heartening to see yet another Tory on the Fallen list.

The hindu dwarf has had a horror week with him showing himself up to be utterly clueless but he is still getting away with it. One of the most under-reported aspects was him and/or his wife investing £500 million in Moderna if my memory is still working. No wonder they are all kissing Bill Gates’ backside with the profits they stand to make. My hope is that the Prime Miniature survives to lead the Tories to an even bigger defeat. They must be destroyed.

As far as Reform go, what a sh!tshow. As we all knew Tice is as useless as that Humza bloke and the vertically challenged PM. Reform will never amount to anything with him at the helm. La Oakshott should be geeing him up. His choice of candidate is extremely sus to say the least. He puts dodgy Danczuk in Rochdale and then Gorgeous George says “he also tried to recruit me”. I don’t think Galloway would lie about this, he usually sticks to the truth. Tice’s judgement must now be in doubt if he is desperately thrashing around trying to recruit just about anyone. Does he not realise that failed politicians would be the last thing the people want. Galloway may have won 3 by elections but he was always rejected at the following GE. This time may be different.

Never mind, we have a by election in Blackpool South to anticipate with glee. Scott Benton has been given the bum’s rush. He is due to fall anyway by 16% or so. Another Labour seat in the making.

As mentioned at the start, beware of polls. I think with the number of polls the most interesting part is the way the percentages change, that gives a better indication of what is going on. Unfortunately there is not much change so far, let’s hope next week gives us more hope.

© well_chuffed 2024