Polling Predictions #20

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

As we trundle into the final full week of the campaign the furore over Nigel’s Ukraine comments shows no sign of dying down. The establishment thinks it has found a surefire way of beating down that upstart. The more they moan about it the more popular Reform will become. Very few of us trust these screeching lunatics. I think Jobby has been especially effective in shoring up any wavering Reform voters.

With the polling figures as they are, can we expect a nice quiet weekend with the big two parties scratching their heads and asking where it all went wrong. I do hope so. I watched half of that Andrew Bridgen interview and it shows just how far the bar stewards will go to break you down and give you a good kicking.

It appears that on Saturday NikNak has a new wheeze. Sticking to his theme of concentrating on things nobody is thinking about he is going to assist the hospitality sector or night time economy as he calls it (does he want to help Crayons as she trawls the pub car parks at turfing out time). He wants to help pubs and restaurants out because of the hard times he is responsible for. Another cones hotline moment. He really does not have a Scooby. Not to be outdone, Ed Davey has come up with a plan to save chalk streams from sewage. FFS, save all streams, rivers and seas from it you dumbo. In response the Tories are pouring resources into the dwarf’s seat because they fear he might be beaten. His D-Day fiasco has not gone down at all well at Catterick Garrison. We live in hope.

It wouldn’t be an election without a bit of Windrush. This time it is Pixie Cooper-Balls who is promising to turn the page. Keith also chipped in with a load of guff about respect.

A poll of Clacton from a couple of days ago puts a certain Mr Farage on 48%, the poor old Vicar from Bread on 21% and the racist drinker of white tears on 18%. There have even been rumours that Giles Watling is considering pulling out (steady on at the back). Clacton contains Jaywick, one of the most deprived areas in England. It ought to be fertile ground for Labour who love poor people so much they want to create even more of them.

Mr Jon Craig of Sly News speaks for all of us when he says a six week campaign is too long. Maggie only ever had 3 or 4 weeks worth of lying to the electorate presumably based on the theory that most people don’t take much notice of these campaigns.

Gamblegate as some are calling it has taken yet another turn for the worse in Tory eyes. The Tory chief data officer, Nick Mason, is now under investigation (there are reports of dozens of bets up to £100 a pop) by the Gambling Commission (that’s five collars being felt and counting) and has taken leave of absence. That is a more convoluted way of saying scarpered and in the middle of an election campaign as well. NikNak is going to regret calling this election, bigly. Most of the press report this as under investigation but the super soaraway Sun says he is being probed. Does a puffin write their headlines ? The little brown chap will just have to console himself in his multi million dollar drum in Santa Monica. I think the dwarf needs to get a grip on this, man up and tell us how many are involved otherwise it will be a drip drip drip of names emerging over the next few days. Behind closed doors he must be close to suicidal by now. Everything he touches turns to brown stuff.

The proof, if any were needed, that there is little difference between Labour and the Tories is that these people have been caught red handed and still deny any wrongdoing. The left deny everything as a matter of course and now the right do just the same though I am not convinced right is a valid description for a party full of LibDem entryists.

Wonderful news for Dan4 and other puffins in Norn Iron. On Sunday Ulster TV will be hosting a debate between the leaders of the province’s political parties. One can only hope it stays peaceful but will anybody be watching ?

An aide to James “not so” Cleverly, James Sunderland MP for Bracknell, has been recorded as declaring what we all know anyway, that the Rwanda scheme is crap. He stopped short of also saying what we also all know and that is that there is no intention of ever deporting anyone and never has been.

The Tories are now in complete panic and meltdown. Candidates in seats with majorities of 4,000 to 6,000 have been ordered to shut down their campaigns so they can be drafted in to help out cabinet ministers with majorities of over 20,000. Where is the incentive for these candidates to actually do that. They have been told they have no hope so have to go and help out what used to be safe seats..  I just hope one of them comes knocking on my door. The list of Tory big beasts under threat gets longer each day. Will the Tories experience their own electoral net zero ? The Tories only have 99 seats with majorities of over 20,000. Does this mean they think they will have less than 100 seats on July 5th ?

Meanwhile Labour are making it easier for trannies to transition. Are there really that many tranny votes around. The Grauniad also alleges that one of Labour’s first acts will be to stuff the House of Lords with compliant peers and to improve gender balance. Seeing as Keith can’t define what a woman is this may be a trifle difficult for him.

Yet again we have suffered a nonentity of a weekend. Not that much going on and not even many polls. Even the politicians are suffering from campaign overload.

Far from claiming that Brexit is done, the little brown chap is now claiming he is the only one who can get it done. For heavens’ sake can he make his mind up. We all know it was a half hearted attempt to pretend we had left the EU but now he says he can finish it. We would all be well advised not to believe a word that little shyster utters.

Exciting news on Monday, fresh from the success of launching the Welsh Tory Manifesto NikNak will be launching the Scottish version. One hopes both nations will end up with net zero Tory MPs. Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting will be highlighting people pulling their own teeth out due to lack of access to NHS dentists. A bigger problem is people pulling their own hair out because of this absolutely dire election campaign. “Putin apologist” Nigel will be interviewed on ITV tonight, expect 100% of it to concern Ukraine.

As the catastrophic Tory campaign unravels I am reminded of something someone said of the dwarf at the beginning. It may have been Ma Dale but I can’t be sure, anyhow he said the PM knows a war is coming and doesn’t want to be a wartime PM. If true this is quite extraordinary. Either he wanted to win and would then hand over to someone else or he is deliberately losing so he can have his wish. At the start he may have thought he could have a glorious victory but must have soon realised he would be booted out and is full on to ensure he goes. I think we deserve an explanation. It would be hilarious if the Gambling Commission found that he had also been betting on the date of the general election. Surely that would finish him off.

Oh dear, It seems the tinged chap who loves to drink white tears and was standing for Labour in Clacton has gone missing. There are rumours that Keith has told him to do one.

Still desperate stuff from the Tories who are screeching even louder that a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour whereas we all know a vote for the Tories will help Labour because it is a vote stolen from Reform.

Meanwhile Sir John Curtice, the polling guru, warns that Labour are not having a fruitful campaign and in response they are getting worried. It is plain that none of their new supporters like either Labour or Keith, it is a massive protest against the Tories. Labour’s campaign chief has warned that up to a quarter of voters are yet to make their minds up. This is what senior Tories have also been saying, “all to play for”. The difference is that nobody is going to plump for the donkeys with blue rosettes. Reform’s rise in vote share has got the big two terrified. Keith is still going to win, the only question is by how much. If I have to wipe that particular piece of egg off my face in a week and a half I shall be a happy man.

Gamblegate rumbles on. A Labour candidate bet on himself to lose and has been given the bum’s rush by Keith, he had also donated £100k to Labour and they say they have given that back. One wonders if the £100k donation was linked to his candidacy. A fifth Tory, Russell George, is under investigation as are five more plod. Someone needs to get a grip on this, it is just drip drip. An archeologist has uncovered Charles Kennedy in 1994 betting on his Party underperforming and winning. Tory candidate Philip Davies, husband of Esther McVey, is alleged to have placed an £8k bet on him losing his seat where he has a 6k majority. Keith refuses to say if any other Labour MPs have been betting, a sure sign that they have. By Thursday seven plod are now under investigation. We all knew we’ve got bent politicians and bent plod so if any of you are surprised, you shouldn’t be.

Just a reminder that political betting is nothing new. Nearly 25 years ago Labour MP Frank Roy said he couldn’t give up the money he made betting on the next Speaker because his wife had spent it all. This would have been when the controversial Mick Martin (Baron Martin of Springburn to you plebs) was elected in October 2000. The Baron survived for 72 years, not very long these days but a few decades longer than some of his constituents in Glasgow. Mick, who rose via the trade union route, deserves an article of his own.

A bunch called Youth Demand (me neither) have invaded the dwarf’s constituency home. One of them dropped his strides and defecated in the pond. It’s a funny old world. Plod have detained four people, including a press photographer, and they may even get arrested. Youth Demand claim Mr Sunak has done a sh!t job and they have issued a code brown to him.

The latest poll in Islington North has the tramp in second place with 29%, Labour are comfortably on 43%. The poll was commissioned by supporters of the tramp so he may well be out of a job and his supporters will be cursing the alleged £6k they spent on the poll.

A postie has been caught writing “racists” on Reform campaign literature before shoving it through the letterbox. It could have been worse I suppose.

James Cracknell, Olympic hero and prospective Tory candidate for Colchester, has described his own party as a shower of sh!t. He is referring to the disastrous campaign waged by his leader the hindu dwarf. Similar analysis has been vented by Ian Liddell-Grainger, Anthony Mangnall, Michaels Gove and Tomlinson and James (Rwanda is crap) Sunderland. The little brown chap has also kind of admitted it has been a bit frustrating.

Newsnight reports that up to 15 Conservative candidates and officials are being investigated by the Gambling Commission. Drip drip is turning into a deluge and the little brown chap is swirling down the plughole in a whirlpool of corruption. Labour are also joining the fray. This can only increase the contempt in which politicians are held.

There is a Westminster honeytrap scandal. It reportedly has something to do with sexting. Plod have arrested a Labour member in Islington (no, please, it couldn’t be could it) who has since been suspended. Further reports say the Labour member was blackmailing a gay MP whom he met on a dating app. Almost certainly a Tory victim though Tories can’t be victims in the lexicon of the left. There are whispers that this is not an isolated incident. William Wragg’s name has been mentioned, this happened last year so it has been rumbling on for a year or so.

The lefty luvvie David Tennent came out with some pretty nasty stuff about Kemi Badenoch wishing she would go away, shut up and preferring she didn’t exist. Kemi subtly played the race card but Miss Diane who finds racism everywhere has come out in support of the luvvie. All this racism stuff is too complex to understand.

Ed Davey’s slapstick routine on Wednesday was doing CPR on a dummy to the Bee Gees tune of Staying Alive.

In social media news it is reported that with over 1.5 million impressions (Mike Yarwood ?) Reform are knocking it out of the park compared to all the other parties. This is 3 times more than Labour and Conservative.

Oh dear, Labour have told their candidate in Clacton to go and help campaigns in the West Midlands. This was because he was getting more attention on social media than Keith. Some comrades are furious he was taking the spotlight away from the leader, others are very upset they are not really campaigning against Reform’s leader, who as we all know is really Hitler in disguise. I wonder if the “white tears” jibe had anything to do with it. They may be comrades but they are seldom united.

The venomous Alkie Campbell says, without a hint of irony, he worries about the “normalisation of lying” in British politics. He also accuses Farage of a “pantomime show” and further accuses him of “organising the vote” after he won News Presenter of the Year. Alkie obviously doesn’t possess a mirror. Josef Goebbels must be the proudest man residing in the fire and brimstone.

The poverty stricken J K Rowling has abandoned Labour after spats with Keith and recommended everyone vote for the CPGB. This is the Communist Party of Great Britain but it folded in 1991, One of its replacements is the CPB-ML where ML stands for (Marxist-Leninist). There is also a Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist). The Revolutionary version split from the Socialist Labour Party. This is very reminiscent of all those super groups that formed in the 1970s as various band members split and formed new bands. I tried to follow the splits of the various comrades and my eyes glazed over. Too much of the Maoist and Trotskyist malarkey not to mention anti-revisionism.

Steve Baker is going to run for Tory leader if he retains his seat, a very big if there. That makes Tom Tugendhat and Kemi Badenoch as at least two more. If things go as badly as I hope they do most of the few survivors will be battling for the top job.

In terms people can understand, the Wednesday leadership debate drew an audience of 3 million, I know it’s hard to credit. The Georgia-Portugal game had 6.4 million viewers.

We have reached Friday and it all seems to have been overshadowed by the debate between the Donald and Creepy Joe. All that has happened here is that Channel 4 have tried to stitch up Reform by planting an actor as one of their canvassers who goes on a rant about our PM being an effing parky. Now this is completely wrong, he’s an effing injun is NikNak.

Having removed white tears man from the Clacton fray, Keith now insists that they are competing for the seat. Keith is just a massive Blackfriar.

I have to say that the polls are not showing much movement towards Reform, they only have a few days to get closer to the truth. There is still no sign that Galloway’s Workers Party is even being polled. They just don’t appear in any poll. They won’t appear in the exit poll either, most of their vote will be of the postal variety. Many polls of the seat prediction variety are insisting the Greenies are going to get 4 seats. I don’t like the sound of this, that Dale Vince loony will be crowing about it for years to come. At the same time I do hope that Thangam woman in Bristol gets thrashed.

There have been rumours of three Labour MPs losing their seats. Crayons, Pixie Cooper-Balls and as mentioned above Thangam Debbonnaire. None of these will be missed and no doubt will be elevated to the ermine PDQ. I can just see Crayons waltzing about in that House. I don’t think the noble Lords go in for the Tory Scum type of insult she specialises in.

It grieves me to say but NikNak has brought all this disaster on himself. He is such an ego he thought he could front up the campaign and impress everybody. Who remembers the dishy Rishi BS when he burst onto the scene. He is one ugly son of a gun and only he could ever have thought he was dishy. The campaign is his and his alone. It has been an unprecedented disaster and will go down in history as an example of how not to do it. It now appears that he may lose his seat and all puffins will rejoice.

The latest White Stone Insight poll has Labour on 38, The Tories on 18 and Reform on 21. This is the second of their polls that has Reform beating the Tories. My opinion is that is much closer to the truth.

The loony left keeps on proving it is just as loony as ever. 72 members of the Islington branch of the Labour Party have resigned so they can support the tramp in his attempt to be re-elected. I fear they will not be successful but the number 72 rings a bell. Isn’t that the number of virgins a muzzbot gets if he dies in battle ?

Nigel’s appearance on a QT special was marked by the usual specially selected BBC audience who were to a man very hostile. This would have been the case anyway even without Reform’s threat to defund our parasitic national broadcaster.

The Torygraph is reporting a crisis in the postal vote scenario. Some councils have not printed enough ballot papers and the Royal Mail is not delivering them on time. At least 15 constituencies are affected. People going on holiday is being blamed. The Royal Mail say they are not the cause of the problem, the councils are not sending them out fast enough. Expect George Galloway to be talking to his brief if this continues.

Now for the sharp end of this week’s polling. Firstly the national polls where many pollsters are staying faithful to their figures. There are signs of a slight weakening of the Labour numbers and a rise in Reform’s but the LibDems are also picking up. I can’t remember Ed Davey doing anything but slapstick, he is little other than a fat Turk tribute act.

There have also been quite a few “number of seats” predictions. They are all over the place and I include them only for curiosity value.

Our third image is the polls in Scotland. Not good reading for the SNP and there are rumours Plod Scotland are uncovering even more fishwife corruption. No doubt this will be held back until after the election.

Labour are being quite smug about their polling. They are going to get a several hundred majority but probably not as large as some are forecasting. There is even talk of the Tories going below 20 seats. It is difficult to see that happening however much we might wish it to be true. Other than Labour trouncing the Tories and Reform picking up seats the biggest winner has to be old potato head Ed Davey. It is going to be the most undeserved electoral reward in history, fuelled by those fools who think LibDems are a nice middle of the road party.

Most of the pollsters will have a final burst of activity in the next few days, I will attempt to cover it. I live in hope their numbers will converge a bit.

© well_chuffed 2024