Polling Predictions #10

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

If it’s Sunday it must be Opinion Polls time again. As a quick aside to start with there have been quite a few mentions of MPs being suspended this week. The Grauniad even gave a helpful list of suspended MPs so I took the liberty of compiling a few stats. Remember this is purely a list of suspended MPs. There is an even longer list of MPs who have been up to no good such as touching up men in the backs of taxis and that sort of thing. Every day in Westminster seems to be #FF. The only surprising thing is that the list of suspensions is not considerably longer.

A total of 18 MPs have been suspended and although 8 of them are Tories, contrary to the Labour Party trying to paint itself as pure as the driven snow, 7 of these 18 are Labour. These 15 MPs are joined by a DUP one, an SNP one and a Plaid Cymru one making 18 on the naughty step. As to the reasons why, the Tories lead in the dodgy sexual preference stakes but Labour are well in front for racism. Labour also lead on unknown reasons for suspension with two such MPs who are Nick Brown and Conor McGinn. Nick Brown’s sins are allegedly connected to one or more rent boys. Conor represents St Helens North and St Helens has long been known as incest central. All I could find was something about an unspecified complaint. As you would all expect not one of these reprobates has stepped down as an MP, they are swilling at the trough until the last possible moment. Claudia Webbe has been suspended for 3 years now but is still sucking on the taxpayers’ teat. All claim to still be working hard on behalf of their constituents, this is not an easy claim to swallow. Here is your easy to digest list of miscreants.

As far as the opinion polls go it is a story of carry on polling. Nothing much seems to have changed. I think a couple of the polls are hopelessly wrong but that may be me channeling my inner Stalin. The Tory percentage varies between 19 and 26 but I feel it must be closer to 20. Reform are up around 13 or 14 with the prospect of no seats. Maybe if Nigel throws his hat in the ring they may stand a better chance but they have to get rid of that Tice plonker. The LibDems hover around 9% for which they are predicted to get at least 40 undeserved seats. Our electoral system is bonkers but I am unpersuaded that we should change it or the really really nasty Party (the LibDems) will always be Kingmakers.

Here is the latest set of polls, looking at the more recent percentages for the Tories one has to believe that money has been changing hands.

The number of seats situation looks to have Labour in the 440 or so range, the Tories on 110 to 120, the LibDums on 46 and the SNP heading into oblivion with 18 or 19 seats.  That Humza Useless chap is making a fine job of destroying the SNP. Oddly the Tories may well keep their 6 seats in Scotland, all the changes are SNP losing to Labour and the odd LibDum. The question of Mr Fishwife being charged with embezzlement may bring about some more changes next week.

The hindu dwarf is still trying all sorts of tricks to improve his position, mostly of the cones hotline type and although his attack on the sick note culture isn’t wrong, he will be pilloried mercilessly by Labour. The problem there is that there really are some sick people but there are probably many more swinging the lead. Whatever he tries, his polling numbers remain firmly in the brown stuff. It seems people are prepared to vote for Labour even while knowing they will be no better and probably worse.

Here are the Scottish seat predictions.

The offers of bribery by the Tories must be astronomical, Tice being a grifter must be tempted. I suppose it will all depend on whether Nigel Farage decides to stand for Reform. If he does Tice will be most unwise to try and do a deal. But what am I saying, Tice has to go he is no better than Mr Useless north of the border.

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