Polling Predictions #6

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

Well what an odd week in terms of polling reports. My usual sources are Britain Elects and UK Polling Report. There has been a dearth of data this week, just a few constituency polls and the national polls along with the seat count predictions. We have gone from feast to famine overnight. I think the polling companies may be getting a but more aggressive with the use of their data or maybe those commissioning the polls have put their collective feet down.

This week there were just three reports from a constituency , the two Fallen had already been mentioned but a new survivor appeared, namely Robert Jenrick who is predicted to get a 10% advantage over Labour in Newark. Perhaps this gave him the confidence to put his head over the parapet and declare he would stand for leader even while the dwarf has yet to stand down. If we are reduced to nonentities like this competing for leader there is little hope. Remember the Macmillan succession saga with Butler, Maudling and a few other big beasts jockeying for position. As it turned out Butler was heavily disliked and Maudling turned out to be as dodgy as today’s Tories hence the skeletal Home getting the gig. These were the days of mysterious conclaves that seemed to decide the next leader and nobody really knew who was involved. Perhaps it was a better system. It gave Frost and his ilk loads of ammunition for endless piss taking.

This week I am afraid puffins will have to settle for the national polls. I have yet to see one of these polls predicting the Tories down to 70 or even 50 seats. They are probably just somebody’s wishful thinking but I think those wishes may well be widespread over the nation. Despite many reports to the contrary the hindu dwarf is still in situ boring us to death with his Rwanda bollocks. His plan will make no difference to the dross arriving has and will cost a fortune to achieve nothing. Pure theatre and distraction. The longer it drags on the more he will like it.

The national polls show gradually rising support for Reform, a slow decline for the Tories and Labour holding their own. I don’t know what level Reform need before they get any seats but I don’t think they will reach it. The two main parties will be very happy to keep the system as it is. With the LibDems perpetually bleating about PR so we can always have a hung parliament and the 3% SNP vote giving them 40 odd seats, one day leading to no overall majority we are basically scuppered with a voting system less than fit for purpose. If only the Tories had made a decent fist of their 80 seat majority things may have improved. As it stands I don’t think anyone other than Keith and his merry band is happy with it.

Here is the update number of seats prediction. I still can’t believe the SNP will do so well though it has to be said the alternatives are no better. Perhaps the fishwife on the campaign trail will remind our friends in North Britain just how bad the nationalists are.

Next we have the national polls for the last couple of months

Finally this is the national polls by pollster, here you can spot the trends more easily. YouGov, whom I do not trust an inch have the Tories consistently on 20% or less. We need more of this. The Greens fluctuate around the 4 to 8 percent level, I do hope they get a drubbing as well when whoever is PM by that time calls a GE. For those who place no confidence in opinion polls I have to say I know where you are coming from, they must be taken with a large pinch of salt.  Labour are always between 41 and 47 percent, the Tories are between 20 and 27 percent. The best the Tories can hope for is a 1997 style event whereas the rest of us are hoping for them to be smashed to pieces.

The most striking poll is the Redfield & Wilton Red Wall poll. This is a poll of the red wall seats that the idiot Tories won last time and promptly threw it all away. Although it shows relatively high numbers for both Labour and Tories it has Reform on 16% and that is the highest number I have seen for Reform. That is apparently at LibDem expense and has to be the “none of the above” voters flexing their muscles rather than holding their noses.

With Keith on course for a majority of at least 100 we must resign ourselves to the socialists showing their very worst traits when they take over. It will be worse than what we have now but until the Tories are destroyed and something more conservative arises in its place we are presently in the worst possible place. Something has to give.

© well_chuffed 2024