Polling Predictions #12

Rama, CC BY-SA 2.0 FR, via Wikimedia Commons

In the aftermath of the local elections, not all of which have been counted (shades of the Democrats here), can we use their results as an indication of how a GE would unfold. Locals are deservingly regarded as unreliable indicators of future performance. With their traditional low turnouts only a very brave or foolhardy man would extrapolate them too far.

The spin is off the scale on both sides. From Keith’s “game changing” to the Tories “it could have been worse” the spin meisters are up to their usual tricks. At the time of writing the London mayoral ballot boxes are safely ensconced in a mosque somewhere. Counting begins at 9am on Saturday and may take well into Sunday. I suspect many of the counters had to visit a mosque on Friday. If Susan Hall does steal the job then it will be a massive upset and one that the pesky injun will cling to like a teacher clinging to their water totem.

Labour are crowing over their victory, no it’s not your victory, it has been contrived by the hindu dwarf and his minions being more like LibDems (who are more commie than Labour) than Conservatives. Several puffins have already commented that they had to reach for the sick bowl at the sight of the smirk proudly worn by Crayons. No doubt we will be treated to some choice fatuous remarks by the likes of four bellies and others of that ilk. 

The Express is proclaiming that “Rishi is dishing it out to Keith”. Really, that sounds like he is now a waiter in an injun restaurant, he would be useless at that too. The much promised plot against the Prime Miniature has now been put on hold and is unlikely to bear fruit until after the GE when it will be too late. The timing of a GE is still in the air, the little brown chap says the people don’t want one; it is hard to see where he gets that idea from. Just about everybody wants him out. Waiting until the last minute to call a GE never works in the Government’s favour. He has now turned into Mr Micawber hoping that something will turn up. The bad news for him is that nothing can change him losing his trousers when the time comes. In the meantime the Tories must be gorging themselves at the trough because it won’t last much longer. They are not renowned for holding back when there is money on offer.

I think the polls have been pretty much spot on for the locals. There will always be local variations but generally the Tories have taken a deserved hammering.

There were a couple of national polls this weekend and they do not make pleasant reading for the Toryocracy (I just invented that though I may have seen it somewhere else). Those pollsters who have been predicting the Tories at 26 or 27 percent now have them sinking a bit. At least one company has them down to 18%. The threat of Labour no longer frightens the electorate so the “vote for us or Labour will get in” impresses nobody. The Tories have nothing else left. The cost of living is horrendous, the Rwanda farce is seen by just about everyone as a farce. They can’t even bus a couple of illegals down to the Bibby Stockholm without rent-a-mob foiling their plans. 

As you may note from the following national polls Labour’s lead varies but YouGov have it at an amazing 26%. Seeing as this coincides with my wishes I am quite prepared to believe it.

There was also a “blue wall” poll this week. This to Labour is the equivalent of the “red wall” to Tories. Even there Labour has a 9% lead with the LibDums not far off the predicted Tory vote share. Reform are not making so much of an impression there but what else could you expect with Tice doing his version of a wet lettuce. The man is hopeless, he was even pretty low profile during the local campaigning. Isobel must be giving him a good seeing to. Will he be just as invisible during the GE I wonder.

Our second image is the number of seats prediction from Nowcast who use their own methodology to reach their own conclusions.

It is much the same as before except the Tories have a few more seats (boooooo), the LibDems are down 6 seats (hooraaaaay), Labour are up 3 seats (boooooo) and the Greenies go back down to 1 seat (hooraaaaay). That last sentence does remind me of the “They’re pulling down the Rose and Crown” ditty.

There were a few constituency polls during the week but I was a bit lazy and didn’t put them in my spreadsheet assuming there would be plenty of meat in the local elections. The spinners will have you believe it wasn’t a landslide for Keith (big ? from me) and the Tories keeping control of a couple of councils was a major success. Clutching at straws springs to mind. The only success I can see for the dwarf this week is that the plot to remove the little man has fallen flat on its face again. The Tories are useless at everything.

As I write this there is much speculation that Sad Dick may have lost London. The delayed count is increasing sales of tin foil hats. I feel certain he will get back in and he won’t care if it is only by a couple of votes. By the time you read this, we may be better informed but none of us will be any the wiser.

© well_chuffed 2024