“Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0
Here are some basics relating to the forthcoming US elections on Tuesday the 3rd of November 2020.
Presidential race:
Donald Trump / Mike Pence (incumbent President/Vice President) standing for the Republican Party – RED
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris standing for the Democrats – BLUE
Senate, currently held by the Republicans (53-47) and the House currently held by the Democrats (232-197 [6 others])
Polling – somewhat all over the place giving a wide range of figures. Similar polling differentials are being reported to those from 2016 where Trump had approx. 17% chance of winning.
Key issues:
- Personalities: The main diet of the chattering classes – Trump vs Biden – Leadership skills, record, personability
- Supreme Court appointees (Trump has nominated three ‘Conservative’/constitutional justices: Neil Gorsuch; Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett who is about to be sworn in. Implications relate to legislation concerning abortion and the Rowe vs Wade precedent determining that Federal law trumps state law in this matter. This is a huge issue for the Christian vote and Pro Life movements.
- The economy: Jobs, pay, taxes
- Healthcare, drug costs, right to choose, Obamacare
- 2nd amendment and gun control
- Foreign relations and trade
- Oil/gas and energy independence
- Sanctuary cities / safety
- Judgement on Trump’s handling of COVID
- Judgement on revelations concerning Biden family corruption
- Race – the contrived issue of the ‘intelligentsia’.
Metrics:
Polling: Pollsters have Biden as a strong favourite, until one looks more deeply and in more detail at a range of polls and questions. Record polling for Republicans under Trump with Blacks and Hispanics. Very recent polling indicates a huge shift in these demographic voting blocks away from the Dems.
Bookies: Bookies have Biden as two to one on favourite with Trump approx. 15/8 outsider.
Events: Trump has multiple thousands attending events held up to 5 times each day. He and his support base have energy and it shows. Biden has stopped campaigning with 9 days to go. Virtually no people have been attending events by Biden or Harris who have little energy, no enthusiasm among activists and little recognisable by way of policy platform. The campaign strategy is centred on being ‘Not Trump’, possibly a wise strategy given their options.
Voter Registration: Republicans have exceeded the new registrations of Democrats in vast numbers – unprecedented. Up to 100,000 extra new registered voters in key states where registrations allow for partisan declaration.
Early voting: Reports on early voting looks good for Trump.
Key battleground states:
Texas – the pundits will talk about this. If Biden wins Texas, he will win the Presidency. I predict Trump will win by a big margin. Main reasons: Trump’s vote will be reinforced by the oil industry’s revitalisation, lower gas prices, fears over the 2nd amendment and contentment with the new SC justices appointed in Trump’s first term.
Pennsylvania – A key ‘marginal’ with real issues of vote corruption possibilities. Trump will have won more voters over in the 4 years with his policies affecting jobs, tax cuts and energy – Biden is offering phasing out gas oil and coal and a ban on fracking. Republican registrations exceed Democrats by a big margin in Pennsylvania.
Wisconsin, Michigan. Florida are the other key battleground states.
If Trump holds onto the above 5 states, he will be re-elected.
Current events:
A New York Post article on 14th October relating to a trove of data from Hunter Biden’s laptop (“The laptop from hell.”) plus witnesses (including Tony Bobulinski) plus testimony from Ukraine and Joe Biden himself indicate that the Biden family have profited greatly from Joe Biden’s political office. The story relating to the New York Post being censored immediately when they broke the story of Hunter Biden’s laptop contents, and subsequent stories reported (including matters relating to sexual conduct and minors) have fuelled interest in the Biden family. The censorship of the NYP was undertaken by Twitter, Facebook, Google and most mainstream global news outlets. This story will have an impact on the vote, that impact being a function of how widespread the story gets before the voters vote.
James Dalton’s prediction:
Trump will win and win by a bigger margin than he did in 2016. I detect that the Dems already know that any potential for ballot stuffing will not be sufficient to make the result marginal, so they are now positioning to cast doubt on the election result.
The Republicans will probably retain the Senate with an increased majority and possibly also take the House off the back of Trump’s base popularity and strategic targeting of vulnerable Democrat Congressmen by motivated Republicans. I expect a high turnout and a few surprise state results. If Trump has a really, really good day, New York State could even be in play.
Best guess: Trump to win with 326 EC votes. Republicans to hold the Senate, 56-44. Democrats to (just) retain control of the house 220-211 (+4 other).
There is a strong possibility of a delay in the result announcement and a period of media obfuscation due to the created electoral chaos in Pennsylvania. Traditionally Florida has been the state where election doubt generation is focused. That Pennsylvania is the focus of the media’s attention suggests to me that Trump will win Florida by a significant margin and the Democrats don’t see themselves being close enough in that race.
Top Tip?
Trump to win in Wisconsin: 11/4 at Paddy Power*.
[*Other bookies will take your money too. This is not a recommendation to engage in gambling, which is for fools, and no responsibility will be accepted for any losses incurred by acting on this ‘Top Tip’. In the event of a Trump victory in Wisconsin, the writer will be available to receive gifts of gratitude, possibly in an Oxfordshire field, perhaps at a ‘Bash’, at a time, maybe, during the summer of 2021.]
© Councillor James Dalton, 5 Star Direct Democracy Party. 5dd.uk 2020
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