With all the controversy over the Peterborough by-election and some associated allegations of impropriety it may be time to take a look at some numbers. The by-election was caused by a recall petition, the first time this has been successful in the UK; Ian Paisley avoided the same fate in NI because there were not enough signatures for his recall.
The previous MP, Fiona Onasanya, was found guilty of perverting the course of justice and a recall petition was triggered. This poll needed 6,968 votes to be successful. It got 19,261 votes so a by-election was required and was duly scheduled for June 6th 2019.
15 candidates lined up for this by-election. Change UK did not manage to get the papers in for their candidate so were not represented. They had tried to get one “Remain” candidate (allegedly that Femi Sorry tosser) to consolidate the Remain vote but it ended up in a squabble with the other Remain leaning parties. All this for an election they denied was a kind of second referendum. Change UK were always destined to fail, consumed by their own lies, contradictions and egos.
The results published by the Returning Officer do not contain many of the more interesting numbers. These are gathered by the Electoral Commission and published at a later date. The initial results are essentially the count for each candidate and the turnout as a percentage.
|FORBES Lisa||Labour Party||10,484||30.91|
|GREENE Mike||The Brexit Party||9,801||28.89|
|BRISTOW Paul||The Conservative Party Candidate||7,243||21.35|
|SELLICK Beki||Liberal Democrats||4,159||12.26|
|WELLS Joseph||Green Party||1,035||3.05|
|WHITBY John||UK Independence Party||400||1.18|
|ROGERS Tom||Christian Peoples Alliance||162||0.48|
|GOLDSPINK Stephen Kenneth Savill||English Democrats -“Putting England First!”||153||0.45|
|O` FLYNN Patrick James||SDP Fighting for Brexit||135||0.40|
|HOPE Howling Laud||The Official Monster Raving Loony Party||112||0.33|
|MOORE Andrew John||101||0.30|
|RODGERS Dick||Common Good: Remain In The EU||60||0.18|
|WARD Peter Mark||Renew||45||0.13|
|KIRK Pierre Edmond||UK European Union Party (UKEUP)||25||0.07|
|SMITH Bobby Elmo||5||0.01|
The winning margin of 683 votes was remarkably close to the General Election margin of 607 votes though on a much smaller turnout. It’s almost as though somebody knew how many votes would be needed to just win but avoid the possibility of a recount.
- The turnout for the by-election was much smaller than for the General Election but this is not unusual for a by-election, however when you add the 19,261 who were motivated enough to vote for a recall to the 10,484 who voted Labour and were presumably not in favour of a recall you get a difference of 4,175. This means only that many people managed to vote but were neither brain-dead Labour nor a fanatical recaller.
- A well known convicted Labour vote rigger was seen at the Peterborough count.
- Voters taking photos of their filled in ballot paper, cameras are forbidden in polling stations but why would they do this.
- Voters selling their vote for a tenner, could be linked to the point above.
- Voters selling blank Postal Votes.
- The Postal Vote turnout was rumoured to be 70% and this may be higher than expected though there hasn’t been a by-election in Peterborough since 1943 when there was no postal voting on demand.
- In a kind of parallel/homage to the Democrats in California, there are stories of tinged people arriving late in one particular ward hand delivering lots of postal votes. Bear in mind that postal votes take a lot more processing than normal votes and they are periodically collected during the day to ensure the checking process does not delay the count. Why would someone turn up late with shedloads of them.
It will come as no shock when Puffins hear that these controversies are almost exclusively associated with one particular “peaceful community”.
Postal Votes and Proxies
These are some general pointers to the numbers and percentages of Postal and Proxy votes. Standing head and shoulders above all other constituencies is Rutherglen and Hamilton West, MP Gerard Killen of the Labour Co-op Party, with 3,234 proxies; number 2 in the list is Bristol West with 1,849.
These figures refer to the 2017 General Election. At first glance Peterborough seems to have reasonably average numbers.
|Percentage of electorate with a postal vote||8.13||44.36||18.10||20.07|
|Percentage postal votes returned and counted||52.99||97.00||82.57||80.45|
|Percentage Proxies appointed||0.07||6.35||0.86||0.59|
|Number Postal Votes issued||4,756||29,613||13,010||14,358|
|Number postal votes counted||3,867||24,380||10,749||11,551|
|Number of Proxies appointed||26||3,234||437||281|
These statistics do not include Northern Ireland where the numbers are so low it looks like they do not have Postal Voting on demand.
The previous Local Election results
A mere 5 weeks previous to the by-election there were local elections where 42,323 people were interested enough to vote compared to the 33,920 who roused themselves for the by-election. These are the results by ward and these local elections are the only ones where you can get results by ward. I am assuming these local wards belong in the Peterborough Westminster constituency but this is not guaranteed. Some of their wards belong to the North West Cambridgeshire constituency.
|Eye, Thorney and Newborough||1,254||325||84||351||172||187|
|Fletton and Stanground||246||259||1,030||320||139|
|Fletton and Woodston||661||590||154||299||210||33|
|Glinton and Castor||1,332||186||254||224|
|Hargate and Hempsted||450||203||403||89|
|Paston and Walton||225||333||1,032||462||96|
|Local Election Percent||29.49||26.58||14.61||7.55||10.00||4.99||0.70|
© well_chuffed 2019
The Goodnight Vienna Audio file