The Peterborough by-election statistics

well_chuffed, Going Postal
The Peterborough by-election statistics © Sunshine & Showers June 2019

Introduction

With all the controversy over the Peterborough by-election and some associated allegations of impropriety it may be time to take a look at some numbers. The by-election was caused by a recall petition,  the first time this has been successful in the UK; Ian Paisley avoided the same fate in NI because there were not enough signatures for his recall.

Recall Poll

The previous MP, Fiona Onasanya, was found guilty of perverting the course of justice and a recall petition was triggered. This poll needed 6,968 votes to be successful. It got 19,261 votes so a by-election was required and was duly scheduled for June 6th 2019.

Candidates

15 candidates lined up for this by-election. Change UK did not manage to get the papers in for their candidate so were not represented. They had tried to get one “Remain” candidate (allegedly that Femi Sorry tosser) to consolidate the Remain vote but it ended up in a squabble with the other Remain leaning parties. All this for an election they denied was a kind of second referendum. Change UK were always destined to fail, consumed by their own lies, contradictions and egos.

Result

The results published by the Returning Officer do not contain many of the more interesting numbers. These are gathered by the Electoral Commission and published at a later date. The initial results are essentially the count for each candidate and the turnout as a percentage.



Candidate Description  Votes Percent
FORBES Lisa Labour Party 10,484 30.91
GREENE Mike The Brexit Party 9,801 28.89
BRISTOW Paul The Conservative Party Candidate 7,243 21.35
SELLICK Beki Liberal Democrats 4,159 12.26
WELLS Joseph Green Party 1,035 3.05
WHITBY John UK Independence Party 400 1.18
ROGERS Tom Christian Peoples Alliance 162 0.48
GOLDSPINK Stephen Kenneth Savill English Democrats -“Putting England First!” 153 0.45
O` FLYNN Patrick James SDP Fighting for Brexit 135 0.40
HOPE Howling Laud The Official Monster Raving Loony Party 112 0.33
MOORE Andrew John 101 0.30
RODGERS Dick Common Good: Remain In The EU 60 0.18
WARD Peter Mark Renew 45 0.13
KIRK Pierre Edmond UK European Union Party (UKEUP) 25 0.07
SMITH Bobby Elmo 5 0.01

The winning margin of 683 votes was remarkably close to the General Election margin of 607 votes though on a much smaller turnout. It’s almost as though somebody knew how many votes would be needed to just win but avoid the possibility of a recount.

Controversies

  • The turnout for the by-election was much smaller than for the General Election but this is not unusual for a by-election, however when you add the 19,261 who were motivated enough to vote for a recall to the 10,484 who voted Labour and were presumably not in favour of a recall you get a difference of 4,175. This means only that many people managed to vote but were neither brain-dead Labour nor a fanatical recaller.
  • A well known convicted Labour vote rigger was seen at the Peterborough count.
  • Voters taking photos of their filled in ballot paper, cameras are forbidden in polling stations but why would they do this.
  • Voters selling their vote for a tenner, could be linked to the point above.
  • Voters selling blank Postal Votes.
  • The Postal Vote turnout was rumoured to be 70% and this may be higher than expected though there hasn’t been a by-election in Peterborough since 1943 when there was no postal voting on demand.
  • In a kind of parallel/homage to the Democrats in California, there are stories of tinged people arriving late in one particular ward hand delivering lots of postal votes. Bear in mind that postal votes take a lot more processing than normal votes and they are periodically collected during the day to ensure the checking process does not delay the count. Why would someone turn up late with shedloads of them.

It will come as no shock when Puffins hear that these controversies are almost exclusively associated with one particular “peaceful community”.

Postal Votes and Proxies

These are some general pointers to the numbers and percentages of Postal and Proxy votes. Standing head and shoulders above all other constituencies is Rutherglen and Hamilton West, MP Gerard Killen of the Labour Co-op Party, with 3,234 proxies; number 2 in the list is Bristol West with 1,849.

These figures refer to the 2017 General Election. At first glance Peterborough seems to have reasonably average numbers.


Minimum Maximum Average Peterborough
Percentage of electorate with a postal vote 8.13 44.36 18.10 20.07
Percentage postal votes returned and counted 52.99 97.00 82.57 80.45
Percentage Proxies appointed 0.07 6.35 0.86 0.59
Number Postal Votes issued 4,756 29,613 13,010 14,358
Number postal votes counted 3,867 24,380 10,749 11,551
Number of Proxies appointed 26 3,234 437 281

These statistics do not include Northern Ireland where the numbers are so low it looks like they do not have Postal Voting on demand.

The previous Local Election results

A mere 5 weeks previous to the by-election there were local elections where 42,323 people were interested enough to vote compared to the 33,920 who roused themselves for the by-election. These are the results by ward and these local elections are the only ones where you can get results by ward. I am assuming these local wards belong in the Peterborough Westminster constituency but this is not guaranteed. Some of their wards belong to the North West Cambridgeshire constituency.



Ward Con Lab LibDum UKIP Greenie Ind Grp Other
Bretton 705 683 146 330 113
Central 840 1,727 184 159 208
Dogsthorpe 153 710 652 80 202 96
East 763 1,086 218 183
Eye, Thorney and Newborough 1,254 325 84 351 172 187
Fletton and Stanground 246 259 1,030 320 139
Fletton and Woodston 661 590 154 299 210 33
Glinton and Castor 1,332 186 254 224
Gunthorpe 812 221 1,051 223 87
Hampton Vale 252 269 593 63
Hargate and Hempsted 450 203 403 89
North 786 1,473 147 276 92
Orton Longueville 666 697 127 372 368
Orton Waterville 788 172 61 1,819
Park 1,343 1,473 151 184
Paston and Walton 225 333 1,032 462 96
Ravensthorpe 940 1,044 143 325 114
Stanground South 758 364 84 287 119
Werrington 316 162 71 144 2,045
Totals 13,290 11,977 6,585 3,404 4,504 2,247 316
Local Election Percent 29.49 26.58 14.61 7.55 10.00 4.99 0.70
By-Election Percent 21.35 30.91 12.26 1.18 3.05

 

© well_chuffed 2019
 

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