Euro Election 8 – changes in the last week and a half

Get out and vote for your party, or candidate today

This it , the hotly anticipated and eagerly awaited comparison between the predictions after the 1st week of May when compared to a May 20th Version. I chose the May 20th version because the May 21st one didn’t look right to me and it’s my choice. This article contains all regions except Northern Ireland , the seats that were originally predicted have a tick in the middle column. Those predicted from the latest set of figures are in the extra column on the right. Two ticks means predicted both polls. One tick left means only predicted in the first poll and one tick right means only predicted in the second poll.

The changes between the two polls are

Party
Brexit +7
Chuckup -1
Tories -4
Labour -13
LibDums +4
Greenies +6
PlaidCymru +1

My oft repeated refrain is to watch the trends for a pointer as to what is going to happen , as we approach the polling date the lying pollsters have to get closer to the truth or they will be discredited. The Tories had already “lost” lots of seats so it looks worse for Labour here whereas it’s pretty catastrophic for both main parties compared to 2014.

The Greenies (whom I damned well hate with a vengeance , many are former Communists in the wider world) and the LibDums are doing quite well out of all this. I think they are being over-egged but I am also fairly sure that Brexit have a good chance of getting more than 33 MEPs. When UKIP won 24 seats in 2014 it was seen as a landslide and CallMeDave wobbled enough to give us the referendum. 9 or 10 more than that should be seismic. Will it be me with egg on my face on the 26th , only time will tell.

List of changes to predicted winners/losers

South East Region

Brexit Party
Nigel Farage
Alexandra Phillips
Robert Rowland
Belinda de Lucy
James Bartholomew
Change UK
Richard Ashworth
Conservatives
Daniel Hannan
Nirj Deva
Labour
John Howarth
Cathy Shutt
Liberal Democrats
Catherine Bearder
Anthony Hook

North East Region.

Brexit Party
Brian Monteith
John Tennant
Labour
Jude Kirton-Darling
Paul Brannen

North West Region

Brexit Party
Claire Fox
Henrik Eyser Overgaard Nielsen
David Bull
Conservatives
Sajjad Karim
Greens
Gina Dowding
Labour
Theresa Griffin
Julie Ward
Wajid Iltaf Kham
Erica Lewis
Liberal Democrats
Chris Davies

East Midlands Region

Brexit Party
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
Jonathan Deryck Bullock
Matthew Richard Patten
Conservatives
Emma McClarkin
Labour
Rory Palmer
Leonie Mathers
Liberal Democrats
Bill Newton Dunn

West Midlands Region

Brexit Party
Rupert Lowe
Martin Daubney
Andrew Kerr
Vishal Khatri
Conservatives
Anthea McIntyre
Greenies
Ellie Chowns
Labour
Neen Gill
Sion Simon
Liberal Democrats
Phil Bennion

East of England Region

Brexit Party
Richard Tice
Michael Heaver
June Mummery
Paul Hearn
Conservatives
Geoffrey van Orden
Labour
Alex Mayer
Chris Vince
Liberal Democrats
Barbara Gibson

Yorkshire & the Humber Region

Brexit Party
John Longworth
Lucy Elizabeth Harris
Jake Pugh
Greenies
Magid Magid
Labour
Richard Corbett
Eloise Todd
Mohammed Jawad Khan
Liberal Democrats
Shaffaq Mohammed

London Region

Brexit Party
Benyamin Habib
Lance Forman
Conservatives
Syed Kamall
Greenies
Scott Aisline
Labour
Claude Moraes
Seb Dance
Katy Clark
Laura Parker
Liberal Democrats
Irina Von Wiese
Dinesh Dhamija

South West Region

Brexit Party
Ann Widdecombe
James Glancy
Christina Jordan
Conservatives
Ashley Fox
Greenies
Molly Scott Cato
Labour
Clare Moody
Liberal Democrats
Caroline Voaden

Scotland Region

Brexit Party
Louis Stedman-Bryce
Karina Walker
Conservative
Nosheena Mobarik
Greenies
Maggie Chapman
Labour
David Martin
SNP
Alyn Smith
Christian Allard
Aileen McLeod

Wales Region

Brexit Party
Nathan Gill
James Freeman Wells
Labour
Jackie Jones
Matthew James Dorrance
Plaid Cymru
Carmen Ria Smith

 

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