This it , the hotly anticipated and eagerly awaited comparison between the predictions after the 1st week of May when compared to a May 20th Version. I chose the May 20th version because the May 21st one didn’t look right to me and it’s my choice. This article contains all regions except Northern Ireland , the seats that were originally predicted have a tick in the middle column. Those predicted from the latest set of figures are in the extra column on the right. Two ticks means predicted both polls. One tick left means only predicted in the first poll and one tick right means only predicted in the second poll.
The changes between the two polls are
My oft repeated refrain is to watch the trends for a pointer as to what is going to happen , as we approach the polling date the lying pollsters have to get closer to the truth or they will be discredited. The Tories had already “lost” lots of seats so it looks worse for Labour here whereas it’s pretty catastrophic for both main parties compared to 2014.
The Greenies (whom I damned well hate with a vengeance , many are former Communists in the wider world) and the LibDums are doing quite well out of all this. I think they are being over-egged but I am also fairly sure that Brexit have a good chance of getting more than 33 MEPs. When UKIP won 24 seats in 2014 it was seen as a landslide and CallMeDave wobbled enough to give us the referendum. 9 or 10 more than that should be seismic. Will it be me with egg on my face on the 26th , only time will tell.
This is the fourth in a series of six articles. They contain a brief(ish) introduction and a list of parties and candidates standing in one or two Regions for the European Elections. The first table [more…]