A Truce?

Vir Canttium, Going Postal
Nigel Farage, March to Leave 20190323 © Going Postal

That Nigel Farage, eh?

Woah, before you write any comments that will lay unread for eternity, let’s take a breath. He is not everyone’s cup of tea, but outside our evil far alt right circle, neither is Gerard. However, it is quite clear that the two of them have had something of a falling out. Some have made some pragmatic suggestions [Appeal to Farage & Batten- There is a way we can MAXIMISE the Brexit vote!] as to how the two parties could have carved up the regions to maximise their combined vote, but it’s not going to happen so that’s that.

The downside of all this is the danger of the anti-establishment/Brexit vote being split. Under the quasi-PR d’Hondt system the effects of such a vote split are dampened, but nonetheless there is still a bias towards the larger parties.

Yet are we being too pessimistic about the vote-splitting danger?

Many will recall, in the run-up to the referendum, the People’s Front of Judea shenanigans between UKIP, Leave.eu and Vote Leave. I was one of many who was frustrated, predicting that this could lose us the referendum. However, as it turned out the twin/triple track approach brought some benefits; UKIP/Leave.eu majoring on immigration, for example, captured different sections of the electorate to the more economically- and sovereignty-concerned Vote Leave target audience. While the campaigns were officially separate (despite the MSM and Remoaners to this day castigating NF over ‘his’ bus), I for one was happily delivering VL literature one week and UKIP and Leave.eu bumph the next, together with activists from UKIP, Conservatives, Trots and those of no party affiliation at all.

The fact is there are many anti-EU voters who will not be attracted by UKIP – frankly, if they were they’d already be with them. There is a significant slice of the electorate – notably deserting ‘proper’ Tories – who are more likely to give their vote to the Brexit Party than to UKIP. Yes, this may be a result of the typical MSM demonisation of the ‘far-right’ ‘thuggish’ UKIP, but it’s where we are. I know a good few Conservatives who are not closed-minded to the Islamist elephant in the room, but feel that one battle should be fought at a time, and getting out of the EU is the more pressing task right now. That view may not chime with every reader here, but it is out there.

Of course, it’s valid to point out that having distinct campaigns all pushing for the same result in a binary referendum is one thing, where vote-splitting wasn’t an issue. Yet these Euro-elections are still essentially a litmus test for the public’s feeling towards Brexit now, and it will be the popular vote, not numbers of seats, that will be examined just as it was in 2014 – that it was just UKIP then, but is now UKIP and the Brexit Party, is academic with a GE still legally and probably still some years away yet.

So let us not get too uptight about vote-splitting because, for the most part, we will not be splitting the same vote. Now FFS can we just call a truce?

© Vir Cantii 2019

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