How Goes the War?

Vir Cantii, Going Postal

Steve Bannon is reportedly [Inside Bannon’s Plan to Hijack Europe for the Far-Right] shovelling money in the direction of various nationalist European parties and causes, so it may be a good time to assess where things are as regards the more woke-ish of the parties in Europe and beyond.

This exercise started as a personal whimsy when I was following a couple of foreign elections and led to me having a bookmark folder full of the relevant poll-tracking pages on Wikipedia (I know, I know, but it was somewhere to start). It’s not comprehensive – I’ve not included Greece, for example, as that page hasn’t been updated in a while and my Greek is non-existent. Clearly, then, I’m no professional psephologist and there’ll be those of you more familiar with the domestic political landscape of various countries, so do feel free to add more insight in the comments which, like all of us, I won’t read.

I’ll try and do an update in maybe six months.

So here goes…


Election due: 09/09/2018 Evil far right Swedish Democrats on 20%, a good couple of points up on the start of the year, but falling back a little in the last few weeks – however, their strength in online polling (around 24%) suggests a familiar picture of ‘shy’ righties.


Election due: 17/06/2019 Evil far right Danish People’s Party steady on 18%, a similar level to the economically sound but Europhilic Liberals (Venstre). Trots leading on 26%.


Election due: 21/10/2019 Soy liberals neck and neck with proper Tories the last few months, though Trudeau edging just ahead in the last couple of weeks. Still, his days of being 14% ahead are long behind him now.


Election due: 01/11/2019 Evil far right Law & Justice knocking on the door of 40%. Donald Tusk’s old party the centrist Civic Platform is in second place on around 25%


Election due: 02/11/2019 (Whole HoR and half Senate) Knifing their leader and replacing him with another pale blue suit hasn’t helped the conservatives in the polls much: the rightish coalition of the Liberal and National Parties has seen their support drop by around 2 points to the low to mid thirties since the change. At 33% the new PM Morrison’s approval rating is 11 points down on his predecessor’s. The Trots seem to have capitalised, moving into the lead on around 40%. The glory days of John Howard seem a long time ago.


Election due: 26/07/2020 All four main parties in the 17-26% range. Evil far right Vox on just over 2% and, frankly, struggling.


Election due: 17/03/2021 Geert Wilders’ Party For Freedom (PVV) had been on the slide since early 2017 when they were over 22%, but they’ve rallied this summer to stand in third place on around 15%, somewhat behind the right-ish but Europhilic VVD on 30% and a point or so behind an Eco-Trot coalition. However, in this period the Forum for Democracy party – apparently proper Tories and pushing for a referendum on Dutch EU membership – have risen from 2% to a promising 15%, suggesting that they’ve been drawing support from both Geert’s followers and the wet VVD. There is still hope.


Election due: 10/09/2021 (but electoral system is under review) Conservatives on around 25%, having moved into first place this year ahead of the Trots, though the latter are now back on top by just a few points. Eurosceptic Progress party (coalition partners with the Conservatives) meandering around 13%.

Czechia (Czech republic)

Election due: 22/10/2021 5-star-like ANO2011 – though leftish and flip-flopping on matters EU – are in coalition with Trots. ANO’s support peaked early this year, now back to their 30% election result. In second place, right-ish and Eurosceptic ODS seem to have gained from the decline, rising 3 pts to 14% since the elections. Evil far right SPD remain a little below their 2017 performance of 10.8%. Plenty of smaller parties splitting the vote on most parts of the spectrum.


Election due: 24/10/2021 Evil far right AfD have climbed to 16% since the last election – a good 3-4 points up. They are up in the 20% range in Brandenberg and Mecklething-Vorpommen – both in the old East. Merkel’s CDU/CSU union are on about 30%, down a few points, while the second place Trots have dropped down to the high teens, arguably within striking distance of the AfD, though the latter have the Greens snapping at their heels. I doubt they’re chasing the same voters though.


Election due: 10/04/2022 Evil far right Fidesz/KDNP – Orban’s lot – steady on 50%+. ‘Nuff said.


Election due: 08/04/2022 (Presidency , 2nd round on 23/04/2022), 11/06/2022 (National Assembly, 2nd round on 18/06/2022). The last polls noted on Wikipedia (April) saw the evil far right Le Pen’s National Rally 23% and holding, but Macron’s En Marche were on 36% – up about 12 on last year. Macron’s personal approval ratings have taken the customary post-novelty nosedive but it’s probably too early to say where he’ll level out.

Austria (National Council)

Election due: 06/11/2022 Evil far right Freedom Party (FPO) – coalition government members – meandering around 33% having slipped a couple of points or so in the last year. They’re in third place and 10 points below the leading rightish but Europhilic People’s Party (OVP) who have similarly gained. The Trots are sitting roughly mid-way between them.


Election due: 28/05/2023 (but it’s Italy, so … whenever) Evil far right Lega on 30% and climbing sharply seemingly drawing support from both 5 Star and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. Benissimo Sig. Salvini!

© Vir Cantii 2018

Audio file