Downfall, by numbers

Joe Slater Going Postal

A few weeks back, somebody posted on this site a tweet giving the percentage of migration-background children up to six years old — that is, school age — in major German cities. It was a simple list of names and numbers (and you can see it in full at the bottom). Highlights were Hamburg: 48.94%; Berlin: 43.83%; Cologne: 50.98%; Munich: 58.44%; and Frankfurt: 75.61%. I looked at it in disbelief. Frankfurt at 75.61%? Come off it. I wanted to know more about those percentages.

The tweet, which seemed based on a piece on the Politically Incorrect (PI) website, did give a source: the official agency Statistische Ämter Bund/Länder (Bevölkerung nach Migrationsstatus regional), but with no page references. I tried to check online, but without success. Unlike some stats agencies in Europe, the German number-crunchers go into numbing detail on foreigners in the native population, and their 400-page pdf reports, stuffed with 8-column tables in tiny print, take some sifting. So I made a mental note of the key figures and filed it all mentally under “stuff to do on a wet winter evening.” I remained sceptical.
Then Breitbart London ran a story saying that 51% of all inhabitants of Frankfurt – not just the toddlers – were already of migration background. Again I found it difficult to believe. I used to live in Germany and have known the place for nearly 40 years now. As late as 2014, when I travelled through the north, I thought that Germany would be the one major European country to retain its identity, to be spared the perceived historical “obligation” to take in millions of foreigners with alien ways and cultures. Germany of course had World War II to face up to, but no vast Third World empire or slavery heritage to feel guilty about. It “owed” the world outside Europe little. After all, most of the towns and cities I had travelled through — Hannover, Lübeck, Flensburg — still looked and felt German, just as they had done back in the 1980s when I lived there. Britain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands were already as good as lost, but Germany, I thought, would remain Germany.
Well, it turns out I was wrong.
Last week, I had another look at those tweeted numbers. After again ploughing fruitlessly through the official sources, I stumbled on an article on the same subject by Martin R. Textor, author of Das Kita-Handbuch (daycare centre handbook) website. Now this seemed a rigorous, politically neutral discussion. Citing 2016 stats, it is titled simply When German children become the minority in daycare facilities (Wenn deutsche Kinder in Kitas zur Minderheit werden…). Textor begins: Unnoticed by the publicand even by most publicly active professionals immigration in the past few decades has led to a situation where in many daycare centres, children with a migration background are in the majority. As it is copyrighted material, I am going to stop just there and simply provide the link to the original. It Google-translates pretty well, and the tables are simple:
Textor’s data are apparently based on publicly available information likewise put out by the above-mentioned Statistische Ämter Bund/Länder. Though the two data sets do not seem directly comparable, he broadly echoes the Politically Incorrect numbers in the tweet, but tends to hang a few percent behind.
By Textor’s reckoning, children of migrant background already account for between one-third and nearly one-half of 3-6 year olds in daycare in many federal states (Bundesländer) of the former West Germany. His figures, for example, are 37.7% for Baden-Württemberg, 34.4% for the Berlin area, 41.4% for the Hamburg area, 47.0% for the Bremen area and 35.0% for Nordrhein-Westfalen. Overall in the old West Germany, 32.8% of 3-6 year olds at daycare centres are of migrant backgroundin other words, one-third. His figure for the former East Germany is far lower, at 13.3% — around one-eighth.
But those are wide-area (Bundesland) figures, including rural Germany. It’s when you look at his figures for German cities alone that it really gets chilling. In many, if not most, major cities in the old West Germany, the 50% threshold (for the three-to-school entry group in daycare) has indeed already been breached. Mannheim, Wiesbaden, Augsburg, Nuremberg, Stuttgart and Kassel, for example, are all over 50%. Heilbronn and Frankfurt are over 60%.
And these figures are exclusive of the massive illegal migration inflows of 2015.
I likewise tried to square Textor’s figures with the huge Statistische Ämter Bund/Länder reports, but his references are vague and not necessarily available online (at any rate I could not find the source material). It was frustrating being unable to second-source the figures, but if they are right, one thing is clear. Given that Germany’s birthrate remains stuck at 1.4, a level that has prevailed for four decades, the extinction of Germany as the homeland of the German people is a certainty, and it is only a few decades away.
The German historian Rolf Peter Sieferle remarked that: “Many Germans today wish to disappear as a people, dissolve themselves into Europe or humanity” (Viele Deutsche möchten heute gerne als Volk verschwinden, sich in Europa oder in die Menschheit auflösen.) The Turkish-German journalist Deniz Yücel gloated in the paper Die Tageszeitung:“Super, Germany is abolishing itself!” (a reference to Sarrazin’s prophetic Deutschland Schafft Sich Ab). Sarrazin himself spoke of Germans who are “secretly sorry that they were born German.” To some extent, what is happening now is wish-fulfilment.
To round off this thoroughly depressing read, here is the full tweeted list referred to in the top paragraph, based on the broader 0-6 age group, not on the more pertinent and revealing 3-6 age group (see Notes below) discussed by Textor. The link is:
Migration-background children in Germany, 0-6 years
Hamburg 48.94 %
Hannover 46.67 %
Bremen 57.58 %
Berlin 43.83 %
Duisburg 57.14 %
Dortmund 53.33 %
Köln 50.98 %
Düsseldorf 50.00 %
Essen 50.00 %
Darmstadt 52.76 %
Stuttgart 56.67 %
Nürnberg 51.85 %
München 58.44 %
Augsburg 61.54 %
Frankfurt 75.61 %
Politically Incorrect (PI) is a dissident site with an agenda and with views diametrically opposed to those of the left-leaning childcare sector in Germany. Yet, if anything these figures are understated, as they were collected in 2011 and published in 2013. The PI article also notes that Mohamed remains the most popular Christian [sic] name in the major cities of Germany, and that in the race to self-effacement, the former East Germans are not nearly as well placed as their low degree of enrichment might suggest — because their birth rate is even more catastrophic than that of the old West Germany. This is probably in part a legacy of communism. Having large numbers of career women was one of the few things the GDR could pride itself on compared with the FRG.
Notes: “Migration background” in Germany usually means one or both parents were born abroad. (The term includes up to 4 million ethnic Germans who left the Soviet Union or who moved or were ethnically cleansed from Poland, Czechoslovakia and elsewhere in Eastern Europe in and after 1945; collectively, Aussiedler.) The definition of “daycare” is tricky as it covers various types, including home-visit daycare, but this vagueness does not greatly distort the overall picture. Finally, the age group 3-6 is used by Textor because daycare-based comparisons in the 0-3 age group are skewed by the tendency of migrant, but not German, parents to keep their very young infants at home. Textor’s sources are given at the bottom of his article.

Numbers are not my strong suit, and it’s possible I have missed the obvious in trying to track down the source statistics. German readers are invited to check the references themselves in the two websites for which links are given above.

© Joe Slater 2017